Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Carlisle United win with a probability of 41.51%. A win for Tranmere Rovers had a probability of 31.66% and a draw had a probability of 26.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Carlisle United win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.12%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.62%) and 2-0 (7.52%). The likeliest Tranmere Rovers win was 0-1 (9.42%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.74%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 1.9% likelihood.