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La Liga | Gameweek 5
Sep 17, 2023 at 3.15pm UK
Estadio de la Ceramica
Almeria

Villarreal
2 - 1
Almeria

Moreno (45+5'), Sorloth (90+4')
Capoue (26'), Pino (90+2')
FT(HT: 1-1)
Akieme (44')
Embarba (53'), Chumi (84'), Puigmal (89')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's La Liga clash between Villarreal and Almeria, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Villarreal

All competitions
La Liga
Last Game: Cadiz 3-1 Villarreal
Friday, September 1 at 6.30pm in La Liga

Almeria

All competitions
Last Game: Almeria 2-3 Celta Vigo
Friday, September 1 at 9pm in La Liga

We said: Villarreal 2-1 Almeria

 There are likely to be a lot of nerves in the Villarreal camp heading into this match, but it is a kind fixture for the Yellow Submarine against a side below them in the table. We are expecting this game to be tight in terms of the scoreline but are backing Villarreal to navigate their way to an important win. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Villarreal win with a probability of 51.13%. A win for Almeria had a probability of 26.33% and a draw had a probability of 22.5%.

The most likely scoreline for a Villarreal win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.57%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.91%) and 2-0 (7.42%). The likeliest Almeria win was 1-2 (6.59%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.2%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted a 2-1 win for Villarreal in this match.

Result
VillarrealDrawAlmeria
51.13% (-0.078000000000003 -0.08) 22.54% (-0.097999999999999 -0.1) 26.33% (0.177 0.18)
Both teams to score 61.37% (0.529 0.53)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
61.29% (0.621 0.62)38.71% (-0.619 -0.62)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
38.99% (0.65199999999999 0.65)61.01% (-0.65 -0.65)
Villarreal Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
84.67% (0.19800000000001 0.2)15.33% (-0.197 -0.2)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
55.93% (0.368 0.37)44.07% (-0.367 -0.37)
Almeria Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
72.48% (0.45699999999999 0.46)27.52% (-0.456 -0.46)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
36.97% (0.586 0.59)63.03% (-0.583 -0.58)
Score Analysis
    Villarreal 51.13%
    Almeria 26.33%
    Draw 22.53%
VillarrealDrawAlmeria
2-1 @ 9.57% (-0.026000000000002 -0.03)
1-0 @ 7.91% (-0.179 -0.18)
2-0 @ 7.42% (-0.116 -0.12)
3-1 @ 5.99% (0.025 0.03)
3-0 @ 4.64% (-0.04 -0.04)
3-2 @ 3.86% (0.065 0.07)
4-1 @ 2.81% (0.03 0.03)
4-0 @ 2.18% (-0.004 -0)
4-2 @ 1.81% (0.043 0.04)
5-1 @ 1.05% (0.019 0.02)
Other @ 3.9%
Total : 51.13%
1-1 @ 10.2% (-0.1 -0.1)
2-2 @ 6.18% (0.062 0.06)
0-0 @ 4.22% (-0.125 -0.13)
3-3 @ 1.66% (0.049 0.05)
Other @ 0.28%
Total : 22.53%
1-2 @ 6.59% (0.021 0.02)
0-1 @ 5.44% (-0.09 -0.09)
0-2 @ 3.51% (-0.012 -0.01)
1-3 @ 2.83% (0.046 0.05)
2-3 @ 2.66% (0.06 0.06)
0-3 @ 1.51% (0.014 0.01)
1-4 @ 0.91% (0.026 0.03)
Other @ 2.88%
Total : 26.33%

How you voted: Villarreal vs Almeria

Villarreal
89.5%
Draw
7.0%
Almeria
3.5%
57
Head to Head
Mar 4, 2023 3.15pm
Gameweek 24
Almeria
0-2
Villarreal
Moreno (76'), Luis Morales (88')
> Preview
Oct 23, 2022 5.30pm
Gameweek 11
Villarreal
2-1
Almeria
Baena (56'), Jackson (90+4')
Melero (31')
> Preview
Dec 5, 2018 7.30pm
Round of 32
Villarreal
8-0
Almeria
Toko Ekambi (23', 30', 36', 47'), Bacca (45', 83' pen.), Moreno (67'), Raba (89')

Castellano (40'), Arzura (81')
Nov 1, 2018 5.30pm
Round of 32
Almeria
3-3
Villarreal
Chema (52' pen.), Gassama (86', 90')
Trujillo (43'), Brice Eteki (90')
Cazorla (67'), Callejon (78' og.), Chukwueze (83')
Gaspar (49')
Mar 15, 2015 11am
Almeria
0-0
Villarreal
Dos Santos (32'), Angel Corona (34'), Velez (64'), Verza (78')
Dos Santos (40')
Rukavina (15'), Antonio Dorado (23'), Costa (37'), Moreno (54'), Pina (85')
Costa (55')
> Match Report
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
> View full version> Yesterday's results
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Atletico MadridAtletico18125133122141
2Real Madrid18124241182340
3Barcelona19122551222938
4Athletic Bilbao19106329171236
5Villarreal188643430430
6Mallorca199371921-230
7Real Sociedad187471613325
8GironaGirona187472625125
9Real BetisBetis186752122-125
10Osasuna186752327-425
11Celta Vigo187382728-124
12Rayo Vallecano185762021-122
13Las PalmasLas Palmas186482327-422
14Sevilla186482027-722
15Leganes184681728-1118
16AlavesAlaves184592130-917
17Getafe183781115-416
18Espanyol1843111630-1415
19Valencia172691626-1012
20Real ValladolidValladolid1833121237-2512
> La Liga Full Table


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