Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atletico Madrid win with a probability of 75.29%. A draw had a probability of 17.3% and a win for Cadiz had a probability of 7.4%.
The most likely scoreline for an Atletico Madrid win was 2-0 with a probability of 16.42%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (15.51%) and 3-0 (11.58%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.7%), while for a Cadiz win it was 0-1 (3.64%). The actual scoreline of 5-1 was predicted with a 1.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Atletico Madrid would win this match.
Result | ||
Atletico Madrid | Draw | Cadiz |
75.29% ( 1.77) | 17.3% ( -0.22) | 7.4% ( -1.55) |
Both teams to score 34.42% ( -5.81) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
48.5% ( -3.99) | 51.5% ( 3.99) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
26.69% ( -3.59) | 73.3% ( 3.58) |
Atletico Madrid Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
87.96% ( -0.63) | 12.04% ( 0.63) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
62.48% ( -1.35) | 37.52% ( 1.36) |
Cadiz Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
39.13% ( -6.27) | 60.86% ( 6.27) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
8.91% ( -3.45) | 91.08% ( 3.45) |
Score Analysis |
Atletico Madrid | Draw | Cadiz |
2-0 @ 16.42% ( 1.75) 1-0 @ 15.51% ( 2) 3-0 @ 11.58% ( 0.96) 2-1 @ 8.15% ( -0.73) 4-0 @ 6.13% ( 0.37) 3-1 @ 5.75% ( -0.67) 4-1 @ 3.05% ( -0.44) 5-0 @ 2.6% ( 0.09) 3-2 @ 1.43% ( -0.52) 5-1 @ 1.29% ( -0.23) 6-0 @ 0.92% ( 0.01) Other @ 2.46% Total : 75.29% | 1-1 @ 7.7% ( -0.48) 0-0 @ 7.33% ( 1.1) 2-2 @ 2.02% ( -0.66) Other @ 0.25% Total : 17.31% | 0-1 @ 3.64% ( -0.13) 1-2 @ 1.91% ( -0.56) 0-2 @ 0.9% ( -0.24) Other @ 0.94% Total : 7.4% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Barcelona | 12 | 11 | 0 | 1 | 40 | 11 | 29 | 33 |
2 | Real Madrid | 11 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 21 | 11 | 10 | 24 |
3 | Atletico MadridAtletico | 12 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 18 | 7 | 11 | 23 |
4 | Villarreal | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 20 | 19 | 1 | 21 |
5 | Osasuna | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 17 | 16 | 1 | 21 |
6 | Athletic Bilbao | 12 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 18 | 12 | 6 | 19 |
7 | Real BetisBetis | 12 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 12 | 10 | 2 | 19 |
8 | Mallorca | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 10 | 9 | 1 | 18 |
9 | Rayo Vallecano | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 12 | 10 | 2 | 16 |
10 | Celta Vigo | 12 | 5 | 1 | 6 | 18 | 20 | -2 | 16 |
11 | Real Sociedad | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 10 | 10 | 0 | 15 |
12 | GironaGirona | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 15 | 17 | -2 | 15 |
13 | Sevilla | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 12 | 17 | -5 | 15 |
14 | AlavesAlaves | 12 | 4 | 1 | 7 | 14 | 19 | -5 | 13 |
15 | Leganes | 12 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 12 | 16 | -4 | 11 |
16 | Getafe | 12 | 1 | 7 | 4 | 8 | 10 | -2 | 10 |
17 | Espanyol | 12 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 11 | 22 | -11 | 10 |
18 | Las PalmasLas Palmas | 12 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 13 | 21 | -8 | 9 |
19 | Real ValladolidValladolid | 12 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 9 | 24 | -15 | 8 |
20 | Valencia | 11 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 8 | 17 | -9 | 7 |
> La Liga Full Table |