Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Albirex Niigata win with a probability of 47.58%. A win for Sagan Tosu had a probability of 28.77% and a draw had a probability of 23.6%.

The most likely scoreline for an Albirex Niigata win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.41%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.47%) and 2-0 (7.29%). The likeliest Sagan Tosu win was 1-2 (7.05%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.92%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 10.9% likelihood.

Result
Albirex Niigata	Draw	Sagan Tosu
47.58% ( -0.01)	23.64% ( -0.01)	28.77% ( 0.02)

Both teams to score 59.51% (

0.07)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

57.94% (

0.08)

42.06% (

-0.08)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

35.54% (

0.08)

64.46% (

-0.08)

Albirex Niigata Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

82.12% (

0.03)

17.88% (

-0.03)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

51.34% (

0.05)

48.65% (

-0.05)

Sagan Tosu Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

72.47% (

0.06)

27.53% (

-0.06)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

36.96% (

0.07)

63.04% (

-0.07)

Score Analysis

Albirex Niigata 47.58%

Sagan Tosu 28.77%

Draw 23.63%

Albirex Niigata	Draw	Sagan Tosu
2-1 @ 9.41% ( -0) 1-0 @ 8.47% ( -0.02) 2-0 @ 7.29% ( -0.01) 3-1 @ 5.4% ( 0) 3-0 @ 4.19% ( -0) 3-2 @ 3.48% ( 0.01) 4-1 @ 2.32% ( 0) 4-0 @ 1.8% 4-2 @ 1.5% ( 0.01) Other @ 3.72% Total : 47.58%	1-1 @ 10.92% ( -0.02) 2-2 @ 6.07% ( 0.01) 0-0 @ 4.92% ( -0.02) 3-3 @ 1.5% ( 0.01) Other @ 0.23% Total : 23.63%	1-2 @ 7.05% ( 0) 0-1 @ 6.35% ( -0.01) 0-2 @ 4.09% ( -0) 1-3 @ 3.03% ( 0.01) 2-3 @ 2.61% ( 0.01) 0-3 @ 1.76% ( 0) 1-4 @ 0.98% ( 0) Other @ 2.9% Total : 28.77%