Friendlies 1

Jan 12, 2024 at 6pm UK

Paphiako Athlitiko Kentro

Sweden
2 - 1
Estonia

Nanasi (30'), Kiese Thelin (53')
Eriksson (39')

FT(HT: 1-1)

Palumets (19')
Mihhailov (35'), Andre Vallner (84')

Preview

Data Analysis

Lineups

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Friday's friendly clash between Sweden and Estonia, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Sweden

All competitions

Last Game: Sweden 2-0 Estonia
Sunday, November 19 at 5pm in Euro Champ Qualifying

Current Group F Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Belgium	8	18	20
2	Austria	8	10	19
3	Sweden	8	2	10
4	Azerbaijan	8	-10	7
5	Estonia	8	-20	1

Estonia

All competitions

Last Game: Sweden 2-0 Estonia
Sunday, November 19 at 5pm in Euro Champ Qualifying

Current Group F Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Belgium	8	18	20
2	Austria	8	10	19
3	Sweden	8	2	10
4	Azerbaijan	8	-10	7
5	Estonia	8	-20	1

We said: Sweden 2-1 Estonia

Sweden may have named an inexperienced squad for the trip to Cyprus, but we still expect them to have enough quality to edge past Estonia in Friday's friendly. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sweden win with a probability of 76.95%. A draw had a probability of 15.8% and a win for Estonia had a probability of 7.2%.

The most likely scoreline for a Sweden win was 2-0 with a probability of 15.41%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (13.47%) and 3-0 (11.75%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.33%), while for a Estonia win it was 0-1 (3.21%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 2-1 win for Sweden in this match and our data analysis correctly predicted the win for Sweden.

Result
Sweden	Draw	Estonia
76.95% ( -0.05)	15.85% ( -0.03)	7.2% ( 0.08)

Both teams to score 37.69% (

0.5)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

53.8% (

0.44)

46.2% (

-0.44)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

31.5% (

0.41)

68.49% (

-0.42)

Sweden Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

89.84% (

0.1)

10.15% (

-0.1)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

66.62% (

0.23)

33.37% (

-0.23)

Estonia Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

41.95% (

0.51)

58.04% (

-0.51)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

10.38% (

0.28)

89.62% (

-0.28)

Score Analysis

Sweden 76.93%

Estonia 7.2%

Draw 15.85%

Sweden	Draw	Estonia
2-0 @ 15.41% ( -0.16) 1-0 @ 13.47% ( -0.2) 3-0 @ 11.75% ( -0.07) 2-1 @ 8.39% ( 0.05) 4-0 @ 6.72% ( -0.01) 3-1 @ 6.4% ( 0.07) 4-1 @ 3.66% ( 0.05) 5-0 @ 3.08% ( 0.01) 3-2 @ 1.74% ( 0.05) 5-1 @ 1.67% ( 0.03) 6-0 @ 1.17% ( 0.01) 4-2 @ 1% ( 0.03) Other @ 2.48% Total : 76.93%	1-1 @ 7.33% ( 0.01) 0-0 @ 5.89% ( -0.11) 2-2 @ 2.28% ( 0.05) Other @ 0.34% Total : 15.85%	0-1 @ 3.21% ( -0.01) 1-2 @ 1.99% ( 0.04) Other @ 2% Total : 7.2%