The Faroe Islands take on Israel in the fourth round of European World Cup qualifying matches on Wednesday.
The hosts currently sit fifth in Group F on one point from three games, while the visitors will have their eyes on a playoff spot as they are third with four points.
Match preview
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Israel were part of the Asian Football Federation when they qualified for their first and only World Cup in 1970, but they will be aiming to reach Qatar after only being denied a place at Euro 2020 by Scotland in the playoffs.
Steve Clarke's men could again prove to be their nemesis as they currently occupy second place and the playoff position in Group F behind leaders Denmark.
Israel drew 1-1 with Scotland in March, in between a 2-0 loss to Denmark and a 4-1 win over Moldova.
Those were manager Willibald Ruttensteiner's first games as permanent boss, having been caretaker for the second half of 2020. In 12 games he has registered four wins, three draws and five defeats.
The Austrian native faces his home country on Saturday before Israel have arguably their toughest fixture of the group away in Denmark next Tuesday.
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All three of the Faroe Islands' games this month are on home soil after beginning the qualifying campaign with three away trips in March: a 1-1 draw with Moldova, a 3-1 defeat to Austria and a 4-0 defeat to Scotland.
A minnow in both geography and football, the Faroes are ranked 114th in the world and have only won seven of their 70 previous World Cup qualifying matches, but they have been on an upward trajectory in recent years.
The North Atlantic nation picked up nine points in qualifying for the 2018 World Cup, the most they have ever registered in a qualifying campaign.
After that, Swede Hakan Ericson was appointed manager in 2019 and has overseen four victories in 13 games, giving him the highest win percentage of any coach in the country's history.
That includes a 5-1 thrashing of Liechtenstein in their last match in June, in which Klaemint Olsen and Brandur Hendriksson Olsen both scored twice and Viljormur Davidsen netted a penalty.
Wednesday will be only the fourth meeting between the Faroe Islands and Israel and the first since 2005; the previous three have resulted in two Israel wins and one draw.
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Team News
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Hakan Ericson tested out a new 4-5-1 system during the Faroe Islands' friendlies in June, and after a narrow defeat to Iceland and a convincing win over Liechtenstein, he should stick with it for this month's games.
Klaemint Olsen, the all-time top scorer in the Faroe Islands Premier League, is expected to be the lone frontman.
Defender Rogvi Baldvinsson has pulled out of the squad through injury and has been replaced by Hordur Askham.
Over half of Israel's squad play in their native top flight, with more recognisable names including Celtic's Nir Bitton and PSV striker Eran Zahavi.
Thirty-four-year-old Zahavi has started the season with five goals in 10 games for PSV, and is seven goals away from becoming his country's all-time record scorer.
Bitton is back in the squad after missing June's friendlies, while Dor Peretz (Venezia) and Moanes Dabour (Hoffenheim) also return.
Faroe Islands possible starting lineup:
Nielsen; Sorensen, Faero, Nattestad, Davidsen; S. Vatnhamar, Hansson, Andreasen, Hendriksson, M. Olsen; K. Olsen
Israel possible starting lineup:
Marciano; Arad, Tibi, Dgani; Nasa, Natkho, Peretz, Menahem; Solomon; Zahavi, Dabour
We say: Faroe Islands 0-2 Israel
The Faroe Islands are not the pushovers they once were and a trip to Torshavn will not be an easy one for a team such as Israel.
The hosts will try to frustrate their opponents, but in the end the visitors' quality should shine through and we think they will get the victory.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Israel win with a probability of 40.57%. A win for Faroe Islands had a probability of 36.62% and a draw had a probability of 22.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Israel win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.47%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (6.04%) and 0-2 (5.2%). The likeliest Faroe Islands win was 2-1 (8.01%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.84%). The actual scoreline of 0-4 was predicted with a 1.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Israel would win this match.
