FA Cup

FA Cup | Fourth Round

Jan 27, 2024 at 3pm UK

King Power Stadium

Leicester
3 - 0
Birmingham

Vardy (47'), Akgun (72'), Praet (88')

FT(HT: 0-0)

Roberts (65'), Roberts (77')

Preview

Data Analysis

Lineups

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's FA Cup clash between Leicester City and Birmingham City, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Leicester City

All competitions

FA Cup

Last Game: Leicester 1-1 Ipswich
Monday, January 22 at 8pm in Championship

Goals
for

Top scorers

Birmingham City

All competitions

FA Cup

Last Game: Stoke 1-2 Birmingham
Saturday, January 20 at 3pm in Championship

Goals
for

Top scorers

We said: Leicester City 2-1 Birmingham City

Potentially for the first time this season, the mood in the Birmingham camp may be brighter than their Premier League-bound hosts if recent results are anything to go by, and Blues gave Leicester a proper run for their money a few weeks ago. However, Maresca's troops give very little away at the King Power, and the Leicester ball should be in the pot for the fifth-round draw come full time, but Birmingham are sure to put up a strong fight. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Leicester City win with a probability of 68.3%. A draw had a probability of 18.2% and a win for Birmingham City had a probability of 13.45%.

The most likely scoreline for a Leicester City win was 2-0 with a probability of 10.75%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.74%) and 1-0 (9.44%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.55%), while for a Birmingham City win it was 1-2 (3.87%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with an 8.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Leicester City would win this match.

Result
Leicester City	Draw	Birmingham City
68.3% ( -0.69)	18.25% ( 0.33)	13.45% ( 0.36)

Both teams to score 53.45% (

-0.16)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

61.67% (

-0.72)

38.33% (

0.72)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

39.39% (

-0.77)

60.61% (

0.77)

Leicester City Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

89.76% (

-0.36)

10.24% (

0.36)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

66.42% (

-0.83)

33.58% (

0.84)

Birmingham City Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

59.55% (

0.07)

40.45% (

-0.06)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

22.94% (

0.06)

77.06% (

-0.06)

Score Analysis

Leicester City 68.29%

Birmingham City 13.45%

Draw 18.25%

Leicester City	Draw	Birmingham City
2-0 @ 10.75% ( 0.03) 2-1 @ 9.74% ( 0.05) 1-0 @ 9.44% ( 0.18) 3-0 @ 8.17% ( -0.1) 3-1 @ 7.39% ( -0.08) 4-0 @ 4.65% ( -0.13) 4-1 @ 4.21% ( -0.11) 3-2 @ 3.35% ( -0.03) 5-0 @ 2.12% ( -0.1) 5-1 @ 1.92% ( -0.08) 4-2 @ 1.91% ( -0.05) Other @ 4.65% Total : 68.29%	1-1 @ 8.55% ( 0.17) 2-2 @ 4.41% ( 0.03) 0-0 @ 4.14% ( 0.14) 3-3 @ 1.01% ( -0.01) Other @ 0.14% Total : 18.25%	1-2 @ 3.87% ( 0.09) 0-1 @ 3.75% ( 0.13) 0-2 @ 1.7% ( 0.06) 2-3 @ 1.33% ( 0.01) 1-3 @ 1.17% ( 0.03) Other @ 1.64% Total : 13.45%