FA Cup

FA Cup | Third Round

Jan 6, 2024 at 12.30pm UK

The Den

Millwall
2 - 3
Leicester

Watmore (56'), Flemming (86')
Flemming (69')

FT(HT: 0-2)

Casadei (16'), Pereira (39'), Cannon (61')
Cannon (90+3')

Preview

Data Analysis

Lineups

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's FA Cup clash between Millwall and Leicester City, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Millwall

All competitions

Last Game: Bristol City 0-1 Millwall
Monday, January 1 at 3pm in Championship

Goals
for

Top scorers

Leicester City

All competitions

Last Game: Leicester 4-1 Huddersfield
Monday, January 1 at 3pm in Championship

Goals
for

Top scorers

We said: Millwall 1-2 Leicester City

Both managers will make changes to their strongest sides for this match, but it should still be a very competitive contest. Millwall have home advantage, but Leicester have been so strong this season, and we are backing the visitors to secure their position in the fourth round of the tournament. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Leicester City win with a probability of 44.12%. A win for Millwall had a probability of 29.48% and a draw had a probability of 26.4%.

The most likely scoreline for a Leicester City win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.28%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.92%) and 0-2 (8.02%). The likeliest Millwall win was 1-0 (8.82%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.54%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 2.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Leicester City would win this match.

Result
Millwall	Draw	Leicester City
29.48% ( 0.26)	26.4% ( 0.12)	44.12% ( -0.38)

Both teams to score 50.93% (

-0.23)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

46.49% (

-0.37)

53.5% (

0.37)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

24.98% (

-0.31)

75.02% (

0.31)

Millwall Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

67.11% (

32.89% (

-0.01)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

30.54% (

69.46% (

-0)

Leicester City Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

75.88% (

-0.35)

24.12% (

0.35)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

41.58% (

-0.5)

58.42% (

0.5)

Score Analysis

Millwall 29.48%

Leicester City 44.12%

Draw 26.4%

Millwall	Draw	Leicester City
1-0 @ 8.82% ( 0.13) 2-1 @ 6.98% ( 0.03) 2-0 @ 4.9% ( 0.07) 3-1 @ 2.59% ( 0.01) 3-2 @ 1.84% ( -0.01) 3-0 @ 1.82% ( 0.03) Other @ 2.54% Total : 29.48%	1-1 @ 12.54% ( 0.05) 0-0 @ 7.93% ( 0.11) 2-2 @ 4.96% ( -0.03) Other @ 0.96% Total : 26.4%	0-1 @ 11.28% ( 0.05) 1-2 @ 8.92% ( -0.05) 0-2 @ 8.02% ( -0.05) 1-3 @ 4.23% ( -0.07) 0-3 @ 3.8% ( -0.06) 2-3 @ 2.35% ( -0.04) 1-4 @ 1.5% ( -0.04) 0-4 @ 1.35% ( -0.04) Other @ 2.65% Total : 44.12%