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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Leicester City win with a probability of 53.97%. A draw had a probability of 24.4% and a win for Millwall had a probability of 21.68%.
The most likely scoreline for a Leicester City win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.07%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.05%) and 2-1 (9.64%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.57%), while for a Millwall win it was 0-1 (6.95%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 2.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Leicester City would win this match.
Result | ||
Leicester City | Draw | Millwall |
53.97% ( -1.7) | 24.35% ( 0.73) | 21.68% ( 0.98) |
Both teams to score 50% ( -0.84) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
48.76% ( -1.8) | 51.24% ( 1.81) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
26.93% ( -1.6) | 73.07% ( 1.6) |
Leicester City Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
81.09% ( -1.31) | 18.91% ( 1.32) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
49.59% ( -2.23) | 50.41% ( 2.24) |
Millwall Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
61.67% ( -0.03) | 38.33% ( 0.04) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
24.91% ( -0.03) | 75.09% ( 0.04) |
Score Analysis |
Leicester City | Draw | Millwall |
1-0 @ 12.07% ( 0.37) 2-0 @ 10.05% ( -0.12) 2-1 @ 9.64% ( -0.12) 3-0 @ 5.58% ( -0.31) 3-1 @ 5.35% ( -0.3) 3-2 @ 2.57% ( -0.15) 4-0 @ 2.32% ( -0.24) 4-1 @ 2.23% ( -0.23) 4-2 @ 1.07% ( -0.11) Other @ 3.08% Total : 53.96% | 1-1 @ 11.57% ( 0.34) 0-0 @ 7.25% ( 0.51) 2-2 @ 4.62% ( -0.06) Other @ 0.91% Total : 24.35% | 0-1 @ 6.95% ( 0.48) 1-2 @ 5.55% ( 0.16) 0-2 @ 3.33% ( 0.23) 1-3 @ 1.77% ( 0.05) 2-3 @ 1.48% ( -0.02) 0-3 @ 1.07% ( 0.07) Other @ 1.53% Total : 21.68% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Sunderland | 13 | 9 | 2 | 2 | 23 | 9 | 14 | 29 |
2 | Leeds UnitedLeeds | 13 | 7 | 5 | 1 | 22 | 8 | 14 | 26 |
3 | Sheffield UnitedSheff Utd | 13 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 16 | 6 | 10 | 25 |
4 | Burnley | 13 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 17 | 6 | 11 | 23 |
5 | Watford | 13 | 7 | 1 | 5 | 22 | 21 | 1 | 22 |
6 | West Bromwich AlbionWest Brom | 13 | 5 | 6 | 2 | 14 | 8 | 6 | 21 |
7 | Millwall | 13 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 16 | 12 | 4 | 19 |
8 | Blackburn RoversBlackburn | 13 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 16 | 14 | 2 | 19 |
9 | Bristol City | 13 | 4 | 7 | 2 | 17 | 17 | 0 | 19 |
10 | Norwich CityNorwich | 13 | 4 | 6 | 3 | 23 | 18 | 5 | 18 |
11 | Middlesbrough | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 14 | 15 | -1 | 18 |
12 | Swansea CitySwansea | 13 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 10 | 9 | 1 | 16 |
13 | Coventry CityCoventry | 13 | 4 | 3 | 6 | 17 | 17 | 0 | 15 |
14 | Derby CountyDerby | 13 | 4 | 3 | 6 | 16 | 17 | -1 | 15 |
15 | Hull City | 13 | 3 | 6 | 4 | 15 | 17 | -2 | 15 |
16 | Stoke CityStoke | 13 | 4 | 3 | 6 | 15 | 18 | -3 | 15 |
17 | Cardiff CityCardiff | 13 | 4 | 3 | 6 | 13 | 19 | -6 | 15 |
18 | Sheffield WednesdaySheff Weds | 13 | 4 | 3 | 6 | 15 | 24 | -9 | 15 |
19 | Oxford UnitedOxford Utd | 13 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 16 | 17 | -1 | 14 |
20 | Preston North EndPreston | 13 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 14 | 20 | -6 | 14 |
21 | Luton TownLuton | 13 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 15 | 21 | -6 | 12 |
22 | Plymouth ArgylePlymouth | 13 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 13 | 25 | -12 | 12 |
23 | Queens Park RangersQPR | 13 | 1 | 7 | 5 | 11 | 19 | -8 | 10 |
24 | Portsmouth | 13 | 1 | 6 | 6 | 13 | 26 | -13 | 9 |
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