Europa League

Europa League | Semi-Finals | 1st Leg

May 2, 2024 at 8pm UK

Stadio Olimpico

Roma
0 - 2
B. Leverkusen

(Bayer Leverkusen win 4-2 on aggregate)

Pellegrini (30'), Spinazzola (74'), Cristante (78')

FT(HT: 0-1)

Wirtz (28'), Andrich (73')
Tah (16'), Xhaka (74'), Andrich (76')

The Match

Match Report

Bundesliga champions Bayer Leverkusen record a 2-0 victory over Roma in the first leg of their Europa League semi-final in Italy.

Preview

Sports Mole previews Thursday's Europa League clash between Roma and Bayer Leverkusen, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Roma

All competitions

Europa League

Last Game: Napoli 2-2 Roma
Sunday, April 28 at 5pm in Serie A

Goals
for

Top scorers

Bayer Leverkusen

All competitions

Europa League

Last Game: B. Leverkusen 2-2 Stuttgart
Saturday, April 27 at 5.30pm in Bundesliga

Goals
for

Top scorers

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bayer Leverkusen win with a probability of 48.1%. A win for Roma had a probability of 27.53% and a draw had a probability of 24.4%.

The most likely scoreline for a Bayer Leverkusen win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.68%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.46%) and 0-2 (7.97%). The likeliest Roma win was 1-0 (6.98%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.49%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Bayer Leverkusen would win this match.

Result
Roma	Draw	Bayer Leverkusen
27.53% ( 0.04)	24.37% ( 0.01)	48.1% ( -0.05)

Both teams to score 56.11% (

0.01)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

53.87% (

-0.01)

46.13% (

0.01)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

31.57% (

-0.01)

68.43% (

0.01)

Roma Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

69.49% (

0.03)

30.5% (

-0.03)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

33.27% (

0.03)

66.72% (

-0.03)

Bayer Leverkusen Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

80.74% (

-0.02)

19.26% (

0.02)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

49.01% (

-0.04)

50.98% (

0.04)

Score Analysis

Roma 27.53%

Bayer Leverkusen 48.1%

Draw 24.37%

Roma	Draw	Bayer Leverkusen
1-0 @ 6.98% ( 0.01) 2-1 @ 6.82% ( 0.01) 2-0 @ 4.14% ( 0.01) 3-1 @ 2.7% ( 0) 3-2 @ 2.22% ( 0) 3-0 @ 1.64% ( 0) Other @ 3.03% Total : 27.53%	1-1 @ 11.49% ( 0.01) 0-0 @ 5.88% ( 0) 2-2 @ 5.62% ( 0) 3-3 @ 1.22% ( 0) Other @ 0.16% Total : 24.37%	0-1 @ 9.68% ( -0.01) 1-2 @ 9.46% ( -0) 0-2 @ 7.97% ( -0.01) 1-3 @ 5.2% ( -0) 0-3 @ 4.38% ( -0.01) 2-3 @ 3.08% ( -0) 1-4 @ 2.14% ( -0) 0-4 @ 1.8% ( -0) 2-4 @ 1.27% ( -0) Other @ 3.12% Total : 48.1%