We are expecting this to be a very competitive match, and both sides will fancy their chances of causing issues in the final third of the field. Bolton will have more experience, though, and we just have a feeling that the League One side will navigate their way into the next round of the competition courtesy of a narrow win. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bolton Wanderers win with a probability of 69.75%. A draw had a probability of 17.4% and a win for Manchester United Under-21s had a probability of 12.89%.

The most likely scoreline for a Bolton Wanderers win was 2-0 with a probability of 10.28%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.6%) and 1-0 (8.59%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.01%), while for a Manchester United Under-21s win it was 1-2 (3.74%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 4.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Bolton Wanderers would win this match.

Result
Bolton Wanderers	Draw	Manchester United Under-21s
69.75% ( -0.26)	17.35% ( 0.09)	12.89% ( 0.17)

Both teams to score 55.12% (

0.22)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

64.62% (

0.02)

35.38% (

-0.02)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

42.59% (

0.02)

57.41% (

-0.02)

Bolton Wanderers Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

90.88% (

-0.06)

9.11% (

0.06)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

69.06% (

-0.13)

30.94% (

0.13)

Manchester United Under-21s Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

60.65% (

0.28)

39.35% (

-0.28)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

23.94% (

0.26)

76.05% (

-0.26)

Score Analysis

Bolton Wanderers 69.75%

Manchester United Under-21s 12.89%

Draw 17.35%

Bolton Wanderers	Draw	Manchester United Under-21s
2-0 @ 10.28% ( -0.07) 2-1 @ 9.6% ( 0.01) 1-0 @ 8.59% ( -0.03) 3-0 @ 8.22% ( -0.07) 3-1 @ 7.66% ( -0.01) 4-0 @ 4.92% ( -0.05) 4-1 @ 4.59% ( -0.02) 3-2 @ 3.57% ( 0.02) 5-0 @ 2.36% ( -0.03) 5-1 @ 2.2% ( -0.01) 4-2 @ 2.14% ( 0.01) 5-2 @ 1.03% ( 0) 6-0 @ 0.94% ( -0.02) Other @ 3.66% Total : 69.75%	1-1 @ 8.01% ( 0.03) 2-2 @ 4.48% ( 0.04) 0-0 @ 3.59% ( -0) 3-3 @ 1.11% ( 0.02) Other @ 0.17% Total : 17.35%	1-2 @ 3.74% ( 0.04) 0-1 @ 3.34% ( 0.02) 0-2 @ 1.56% ( 0.02) 2-3 @ 1.39% ( 0.02) 1-3 @ 1.16% ( 0.02) Other @ 1.7% Total : 12.89%