Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Jong Ajax win with a probability of 61.38%. A draw had a probability of 19.5% and a win for Jong AZ had a probability of 19.12%.
The most likely scoreline for a Jong Ajax win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.64%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.08%) and 3-1 (7.27%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.53%), while for a Jong AZ win it was 1-2 (5.09%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 4.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Jong Ajax would win this match.