Dallas have an opportunity to match their longest unbeaten run from a year ago when they host the Colorado Rapids in Major League Soccer action on Saturday at Toyota Stadium.
The Toros have earned at least a point in three consecutive fixtures, while Colorado are also on a three-match unbeaten run, drawing their last two encounters by a 1-1 score.
Match preview
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Dallas are off to their best start to a regular-season campaign since 2019, picking up eight points after five encounters as they currently sit in a playoff position.
With Nico Estevez at the helm, this team have been very responsible defensively, conceding the fewest goals in the Western Conference so far (three) after allowing the most a year ago (56).
In what was a reasonably even match last Saturday against a much-improved Chicago Fire side, the Toros were able to force their opponents into several mistakes, creating overloads on the right side, but that last pass let them down as they drew 0-0, registering only one shot on target.
They have been much more clinical in the final third in Big D than on the road, as all seven of their goals scored this season have come at Toyota Stadium.
Several new players joined the club during the off-season, and those additions have provided them with a lot more quality both defensively and in the attack.
The Toros have done a great job when it comes to finding those pockets of space in behind opposing defences at home, with goals in six consecutive fixtures dating back to the 2021 regular season.
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As is often the case when the Rapids face their arch-rivals, Real Salt Lake, we saw a very physical encounter between both sides in the first match of the annual Rocky Mountain Cup last week.
In total, 18 fouls were committed, four yellow cards were issued, and a penalty kick was awarded and converted by RSL, though the Burgundy Boys fought their way back to earn a draw.
Colorado were arguably the most dangerous MLS side on set-pieces a season ago, and they are beginning to convert some of those chances, scoring off a corner kick in two of their previous three games.
Since a 3-0 defeat to Los Angeles FC in their opener, Robin Fraser has noted that his players are showing a mentality that is a lot more positive with plenty of attacking intent, gaining eight points and moving into a top-six position in the Western Conference.
Their approach play and build-up have been relatively effective, and according to Fraser, the next step would be to improve that last action in the final third, enabling those half-chances to become high-quality opportunities.
Collectively, this is a team who know their roles on the field and are excellent in terms of execution, however their decision-making in the attack has produced some mixed results and will be a point of emphasis heading into this upcoming match.
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Team News
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Maarten Paes collected his second clean sheet of the 2022 campaign, stopping one shot in the draw versus Chicago, while Franco Jara made his first start of the season before their leading goalscorer Jesus Ferreira replaced him after an hour of play.
Jara was one of two newcomers to the starting 11 last weekend as he replaced Paul Arriola in the attack, with Facundo Quignon taking the spot of Edwin Cerrillo in central midfield.
Brandon Servania, who has been loaned out to various clubs since joining this squad in 2018, is proving to be a solid contributor with the Toros so far this season, leading the team in assists with two, while Arriola, Ferreira, Nanu and Alan Velasco each have one.
Jack Price can move into a tie with Terry Cooke for the second-most assists in Rapids history, as his next one would be the 34th of his Colorado career.
Braian Galvan is out due to a right knee issue, Aboubacar Keita has a torn ACL in his right knee, Oliver Larraz will not be available because of a right leg injury and the status of Lucas Esteves remains up in the air due to tightness in his hamstring.
Steven Beitashour is 41 minutes away from hitting the 22,000 mark all-time in MLS, Michael Barrios needs one more goal to reach 40 for his MLS career, while Lalas Abubakar, who scored his fourth-ever goal for the club at the Rocky Mountain Cup, can pick up his 100th cap should he see the field on Saturday.
Dallas possible starting lineup:
Paes; Farfan, Martinez, Hedges, Nanu; Pomykal, Cerrillo, Servania; Arriola, Ferreira, Obrian
Colorado Rapids possible starting lineup:
Yarbrough; Abubakar, Wilson, Trusty; Rosenberry, Price, Kaye, Warner; Barrios, Rubio, Lewis
We say: Dallas 0-1 Colorado Rapids
There are many things to like about the structure and shape that Dallas have played with so far this year, but Colorado are sharper defensively than we saw in their opener and have not conceded to the Toros in their last three encounters.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Dallas win with a probability of 48.71%. A draw had a probability of 25.8% and a win for Colorado Rapids had a probability of 25.46%.
The most likely scoreline for a Dallas win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.05%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.27%) and 2-0 (9.12%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.25%), while for a Colorado Rapids win it was 0-1 (8.1%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 4.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Dallas would win this match.
