Copa Sudamericana | Group Stage

Jun 30, 2023 at 1am UK

Complejo Daniel Marsicano

Penarol
1 - 2
America Mineiro

Rodriguez (28')
Rak (9'), Aguirregaray (11'), Hernandez (45+2'), Garcia (87')

FT(HT: 1-0)

Avelar (78'), Juninho (88')
Benitez (45+2'), Henrique (45+3'), Avelar (54')

Preview

Data Analysis

Lineups

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Friday's Copa Sudamericana clash between Penarol and America Mineiro, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Penarol

All competitions

Copa Sudamericana

Last Game: Wanderers 0-0 Penarol
Saturday, June 24 at 10pm in Uruguayan Primera Division

Goals
for

Top scorers

America Mineiro

All competitions

Copa Sudamericana

Last Game: America Mineiro 1-2 Internacional
Sunday, June 25 at 10.30pm in Brasileiro

Goals
for

We said: Penarol 2-3 America Mineiro

With these teams facing contrasting levels of pressure, we would not be surprised to see the home side push their opponents all the way. However, we cannot ignore that the visitors must go on the offensive, leading us to predict an away victory in a five-goal thriller. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Penarol win with a probability of 40.44%. A win for America Mineiro had a probability of 33.06% and a draw had a probability of 26.5%.

The most likely scoreline for a Penarol win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.46%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.58%) and 2-0 (7.12%). The likeliest America Mineiro win was 0-1 (9.26%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.6%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 7.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that America Mineiro would win this match.

Result
Penarol	Draw	America Mineiro
40.44% ( 2.04)	26.5% ( 0.45)	33.06% ( -2.49)

Both teams to score 52.05% (

-1.95)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

47.27% (

-2.28)

52.73% (

2.28)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

25.64% (

-1.98)

74.36% (

1.99)

Penarol Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

74.35% (

0.05)

25.65% (

-0.05)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

39.45% (

0.07)

60.55% (

-0.07)

America Mineiro Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

70% (

-2.67)

29.99% (

2.67)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

33.88% (

-3.33)

66.11% (

3.34)

Score Analysis

Penarol 40.43%

America Mineiro 33.06%

Draw 26.5%

Penarol	Draw	America Mineiro
1-0 @ 10.46% ( 0.92) 2-1 @ 8.58% ( 0.17) 2-0 @ 7.12% ( 0.64) 3-1 @ 3.89% ( 0.08) 3-0 @ 3.23% ( 0.3) 3-2 @ 2.34% ( -0.13) 4-1 @ 1.32% ( 0.03) 4-0 @ 1.1% ( 0.1) Other @ 2.38% Total : 40.43%	1-1 @ 12.6% ( 0.23) 0-0 @ 7.69% ( 0.67) 2-2 @ 5.16% ( -0.29) 3-3 @ 0.94% ( -0.13) Other @ 0.1% Total : 26.5%	0-1 @ 9.26% ( 0.15) 1-2 @ 7.59% ( -0.44) 0-2 @ 5.58% ( -0.33) 1-3 @ 3.05% ( -0.43) 0-3 @ 2.24% ( -0.32) 2-3 @ 2.07% ( -0.29) 1-4 @ 0.92% ( -0.21) Other @ 2.36% Total : 33.06%