Copa Sudamericana | First Round

Mar 10, 2023 at 12am UK

Estadio George Capwell

Emelec
2 - 1
Cuenca

Bolanos (13', 89')
Leon (35'), Leguizamon (90+6')

FT(HT: 1-0)

Mancinelli (49' pen.)
Recalde (38'), Rinaldi (45'), Melo (58'), Biojo (60'), Lopez (90+7')

Data Analysis

Lineups

Coverage of the Copa Sudamericana First Round clash between Emelec and Deportivo Cuenca.

Form, Standings, Stats

Emelec

Last Game: Atletico Mineiro 1-0 Emelec
Tuesday, July 5 at 11.15pm in Copa Libertadores

Deportivo Cuenca

Last Game: Fluminense 2-0 Cuenca
Thursday, October 4 at 11.30pm in

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Emelec win with a probability of 67.48%. A draw had a probability of 20.4% and a win for Deportivo Cuenca had a probability of 12.08%.

The most likely scoreline for a Emelec win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.07%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (13.72%) and 2-1 (9.31%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.55%), while for a Deportivo Cuenca win it was 0-1 (4.9%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Emelec would win this match.

Result
Emelec	Draw	Deportivo Cuenca
67.48% ( -0.38)	20.44% ( 0.19)	12.08% ( 0.2)

Both teams to score 42.25% (

0.03)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

48.86% (

-0.29)

51.14% (

0.29)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

27.01% (

-0.26)

72.99% (

0.26)

Emelec Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

85.76% (

-0.21)

14.23% (

0.21)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

58.02% (

-0.41)

41.98% (

0.41)

Deportivo Cuenca Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

49.26% (

0.16)

50.74% (

-0.16)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

14.83% (

0.11)

85.16% (

-0.11)

Score Analysis

Emelec 67.47%

Deportivo Cuenca 12.08%

Draw 20.44%

Emelec	Draw	Deportivo Cuenca
1-0 @ 14.07% ( 0.05) 2-0 @ 13.72% ( -0.05) 2-1 @ 9.31% ( 0.01) 3-0 @ 8.92% ( -0.1) 3-1 @ 6.05% ( -0.04) 4-0 @ 4.35% ( -0.08) 4-1 @ 2.95% ( -0.04) 3-2 @ 2.05% ( -0) 5-0 @ 1.7% ( -0.04) 5-1 @ 1.15% ( -0.03) 4-2 @ 1% ( -0.01) Other @ 2.2% Total : 67.47%	1-1 @ 9.55% ( 0.08) 0-0 @ 7.22% ( 0.08) 2-2 @ 3.16% ( 0.02) Other @ 0.5% Total : 20.44%	0-1 @ 4.9% ( 0.08) 1-2 @ 3.24% ( 0.04) 0-2 @ 1.66% ( 0.03) Other @ 2.28% Total : 12.08%