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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Southampton win with a probability of 54.37%. A win for Sunderland had a probability of 23.44% and a draw had a probability of 22.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Southampton win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.78%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.58%) and 2-0 (8.23%). The likeliest Sunderland win was 1-2 (6.07%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.2%). The actual scoreline of 4-2 was predicted with a 1.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Southampton would win this match.
Result | ||
Southampton | Draw | Sunderland |
54.37% ( -0.01) | 22.19% ( 0.01) | 23.44% ( 0.01) |
Both teams to score 59.34% ( -0.01) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
60.05% ( -0.01) | 39.95% ( 0.01) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
37.69% ( -0.01) | 62.31% ( 0.01) |
Southampton Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
85.31% ( -0.01) | 14.69% ( 0.01) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
57.14% ( -0.02) | 42.86% ( 0.01) |
Sunderland Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
69.56% | 30.44% |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
33.35% ( -0) | 66.65% ( 0) |
Score Analysis |
Southampton | Draw | Sunderland |
2-1 @ 9.78% 1-0 @ 8.58% ( 0) 2-0 @ 8.23% 3-1 @ 6.26% ( -0) 3-0 @ 5.26% ( -0) 3-2 @ 3.72% ( -0) 4-1 @ 3% ( -0) 4-0 @ 2.52% ( -0) 4-2 @ 1.78% ( -0) 5-1 @ 1.15% ( -0) 5-0 @ 0.97% ( -0) Other @ 3.12% Total : 54.37% | 1-1 @ 10.2% ( 0.01) 2-2 @ 5.82% 0-0 @ 4.47% ( 0) 3-3 @ 1.48% Other @ 0.23% Total : 22.19% | 1-2 @ 6.07% ( 0) 0-1 @ 5.32% ( 0) 0-2 @ 3.16% ( 0) 1-3 @ 2.41% ( 0) 2-3 @ 2.31% ( -0) 0-3 @ 1.25% ( 0) Other @ 2.93% Total : 23.44% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Sunderland | 15 | 9 | 4 | 2 | 25 | 11 | 14 | 31 |
2 | Sheffield UnitedSheff Utd | 15 | 10 | 3 | 2 | 19 | 7 | 12 | 31 |
3 | Leeds UnitedLeeds | 15 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 24 | 9 | 15 | 29 |
4 | Burnley | 15 | 7 | 6 | 2 | 18 | 6 | 12 | 27 |
5 | West Bromwich AlbionWest Brom | 15 | 6 | 7 | 2 | 16 | 9 | 7 | 25 |
6 | Watford | 15 | 8 | 1 | 6 | 23 | 22 | 1 | 25 |
7 | Middlesbrough | 15 | 7 | 3 | 5 | 23 | 17 | 6 | 24 |
8 | Millwall | 15 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 18 | 13 | 5 | 23 |
9 | Blackburn RoversBlackburn | 15 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 19 | 17 | 2 | 22 |
10 | Bristol City | 15 | 5 | 7 | 3 | 20 | 19 | 1 | 22 |
11 | Swansea CitySwansea | 15 | 5 | 4 | 6 | 11 | 10 | 1 | 19 |
12 | Derby CountyDerby | 15 | 5 | 4 | 6 | 19 | 19 | 0 | 19 |
13 | Stoke CityStoke | 15 | 5 | 4 | 6 | 18 | 19 | -1 | 19 |
14 | Norwich CityNorwich | 15 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 23 | 22 | 1 | 18 |
15 | Sheffield WednesdaySheff Weds | 15 | 5 | 3 | 7 | 17 | 25 | -8 | 18 |
16 | Oxford UnitedOxford Utd | 15 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 17 | 18 | -1 | 17 |
17 | Coventry CityCoventry | 15 | 4 | 4 | 7 | 20 | 21 | -1 | 16 |
18 | Plymouth ArgylePlymouth | 15 | 4 | 4 | 7 | 15 | 26 | -11 | 16 |
19 | Hull City | 15 | 3 | 6 | 6 | 16 | 20 | -4 | 15 |
20 | Preston North EndPreston | 15 | 3 | 6 | 6 | 15 | 23 | -8 | 15 |
21 | Luton TownLuton | 15 | 4 | 3 | 8 | 17 | 26 | -9 | 15 |
22 | Cardiff CityCardiff | 15 | 4 | 3 | 8 | 14 | 23 | -9 | 15 |
23 | Portsmouth | 15 | 2 | 6 | 7 | 16 | 28 | -12 | 12 |
24 | Queens Park RangersQPR | 15 | 1 | 7 | 7 | 12 | 25 | -13 | 10 |
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