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Championship | Gameweek 18
Nov 29, 2023 at 7.45pm UK
Elland Road
Swansea logo

Leeds
3 - 1
Swansea

Piroe (4'), Rutter (45+3'), James (61')
FT(HT: 2-1)
Paterson (1')
Lowe (73')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Wednesday's Championship clash between Leeds United and Swansea City, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Rotherham 1-1 Leeds
Friday, November 24 at 8pm in Championship
Last Game: Swansea 2-2 Hull City
Saturday, November 25 at 3pm in Championship

We said: Leeds United 2-1 Swansea City

With Leeds having been below their best either side of the international break, Swansea will sense an opportunity to get back on track. Nevertheless, we cannot ignore Leeds' superior firepower - particularly at Elland Road - and it leaves us to predict a hard-earned win for the home side. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Leeds United win with a probability of 52.39%. A win for Swansea City had a probability of 25.2% and a draw had a probability of 22.4%.

The most likely scoreline for a Leeds United win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.66%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.15%) and 2-0 (7.71%). The likeliest Swansea City win was 1-2 (6.39%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.2%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 6.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Leeds United would win this match.

Result
Leeds UnitedDrawSwansea City
52.39% (-0.537 -0.54) 22.41% (0.682 0.68) 25.2% (-0.148 -0.15)
Both teams to score 60.66% (-2.656 -2.66)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
60.87% (-3.423 -3.42)39.13% (3.418 3.42)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
38.54% (-3.681 -3.68)61.46% (3.677 3.68)
Leeds United Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
84.94% (-1.371 -1.37)15.05% (1.366 1.37)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
56.44% (-2.658 -2.66)43.55% (2.654 2.65)
Swansea City Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
71.41% (-1.945 -1.94)28.58% (1.942 1.94)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
35.62% (-2.504 -2.5)64.38% (2.5 2.5)
Score Analysis
    Leeds United 52.39%
    Swansea City 25.2%
    Draw 22.4%
Leeds UnitedDrawSwansea City
2-1 @ 9.66% (0.123 0.12)
1-0 @ 8.15% (0.896 0.9)
2-0 @ 7.71% (0.503 0.5)
3-1 @ 6.1% (-0.225 -0.23)
3-0 @ 4.87% (0.088 0.09)
3-2 @ 3.82% (-0.364 -0.36)
4-1 @ 2.89% (-0.257 -0.26)
4-0 @ 2.31% (-0.072 -0.07)
4-2 @ 1.81% (-0.271 -0.27)
5-1 @ 1.09% (-0.158 -0.16)
Other @ 3.99%
Total : 52.39%
1-1 @ 10.2% (0.609 0.61)
2-2 @ 6.05% (-0.259 -0.26)
0-0 @ 4.3% (0.656 0.66)
3-3 @ 1.59% (-0.25 -0.25)
Other @ 0.26%
Total : 22.4%
1-2 @ 6.39% (0.046 0.05)
0-1 @ 5.39% (0.566 0.57)
0-2 @ 3.37% (0.185 0.19)
1-3 @ 2.67% (-0.129 -0.13)
2-3 @ 2.53% (-0.256 -0.26)
0-3 @ 1.41% (0.002 0)
Other @ 3.45%
Total : 25.2%

How you voted: Leeds vs Swansea

Leeds United
Draw
Swansea City
Leeds United
83.3%
Draw
16.7%
Swansea City
0.0%
36
Head to Head
Jul 12, 2020 1.30pm
Aug 31, 2019 3pm
Gameweek 6
Leeds
0-1
Swansea

Alioski (21'), Phillips (95')
Routledge (90')
Fulton (78'), Byers (95')
Feb 13, 2019 7.45pm
Gameweek 32
Leeds
2-1
Swansea
Jansson (20'), Harrison (34')
Harrison (94')
McBurnie (87' pen.)
Aug 21, 2018 7.45pm
Gameweek 4
Swansea
2-2
Leeds
McBurnie (24', 51')
Roofe (40'), Hernandez (79')
Phillips (13'), Roofe (27'), Baker (37'), Saiz (89')
Feb 26, 2011 3pm
Swansea
3-0
Leeds
Moore (72'), Sinclair (13', 55' pen.)
Rangel (64'), Moore (68')

Lichaj (18'), Bruce (27'), Kilkenny (42'), McCartney (48')
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Leeds UnitedLeeds382311476255180
2Sheffield UnitedSheff Utd38257653282580
3Burnley382115252114178
4Sunderland381912755371869
5Coventry CityCoventry38178135548759
6West Bromwich AlbionWest Brom381318748341457
7Bristol City38141594941857
8Middlesbrough38159145748954
9Blackburn RoversBlackburn38157164240252
10Watford38157164751-452
11Millwall381312133739-251
12Sheffield WednesdaySheff Weds38149155359-651
13Norwich CityNorwich381213136054649
14Preston North EndPreston381017113944-547
15Queens Park RangersQPR381112154450-645
16Swansea CitySwansea38128183849-1144
17Portsmouth38119184661-1542
18Oxford UnitedOxford Utd381012163955-1642
19Hull City381011173947-841
20Stoke CityStoke38912173751-1439
21Cardiff CityCardiff38912174262-2039
22Derby CountyDerby38108204051-1138
23Luton TownLuton3898213460-2635
24Plymouth ArgylePlymouth38712194077-3733


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