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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Leeds United win with a probability of 52.39%. A win for Swansea City had a probability of 25.2% and a draw had a probability of 22.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Leeds United win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.66%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.15%) and 2-0 (7.71%). The likeliest Swansea City win was 1-2 (6.39%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.2%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 6.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Leeds United would win this match.
Result | ||
Leeds United | Draw | Swansea City |
52.39% ( -0.54) | 22.41% ( 0.68) | 25.2% ( -0.15) |
Both teams to score 60.66% ( -2.66) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
60.87% ( -3.42) | 39.13% ( 3.42) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
38.54% ( -3.68) | 61.46% ( 3.68) |
Leeds United Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
84.94% ( -1.37) | 15.05% ( 1.37) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
56.44% ( -2.66) | 43.55% ( 2.65) |
Swansea City Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
71.41% ( -1.94) | 28.58% ( 1.94) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
35.62% ( -2.5) | 64.38% ( 2.5) |
Score Analysis |
Leeds United | Draw | Swansea City |
2-1 @ 9.66% ( 0.12) 1-0 @ 8.15% ( 0.9) 2-0 @ 7.71% ( 0.5) 3-1 @ 6.1% ( -0.23) 3-0 @ 4.87% ( 0.09) 3-2 @ 3.82% ( -0.36) 4-1 @ 2.89% ( -0.26) 4-0 @ 2.31% ( -0.07) 4-2 @ 1.81% ( -0.27) 5-1 @ 1.09% ( -0.16) Other @ 3.99% Total : 52.39% | 1-1 @ 10.2% ( 0.61) 2-2 @ 6.05% ( -0.26) 0-0 @ 4.3% ( 0.66) 3-3 @ 1.59% ( -0.25) Other @ 0.26% Total : 22.4% | 1-2 @ 6.39% ( 0.05) 0-1 @ 5.39% ( 0.57) 0-2 @ 3.37% ( 0.19) 1-3 @ 2.67% ( -0.13) 2-3 @ 2.53% ( -0.26) 0-3 @ 1.41% ( 0) Other @ 3.45% Total : 25.2% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Sheffield UnitedSheff Utd | 16 | 10 | 4 | 2 | 21 | 9 | 12 | 32 |
2 | Sunderland | 15 | 9 | 4 | 2 | 25 | 11 | 14 | 31 |
3 | Burnley | 16 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 19 | 6 | 13 | 30 |
4 | Leeds UnitedLeeds | 15 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 24 | 9 | 15 | 29 |
5 | Middlesbrough | 16 | 8 | 3 | 5 | 29 | 19 | 10 | 27 |
6 | West Bromwich AlbionWest Brom | 16 | 6 | 8 | 2 | 18 | 11 | 7 | 26 |
7 | Watford | 16 | 8 | 2 | 6 | 25 | 24 | 1 | 26 |
8 | Millwall | 15 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 18 | 13 | 5 | 23 |
9 | Blackburn RoversBlackburn | 15 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 19 | 17 | 2 | 22 |
10 | Bristol City | 16 | 5 | 7 | 4 | 20 | 20 | 0 | 22 |
11 | Derby CountyDerby | 16 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 20 | 20 | 0 | 20 |
12 | Stoke CityStoke | 16 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 19 | 20 | -1 | 20 |
13 | Norwich CityNorwich | 16 | 4 | 7 | 5 | 25 | 24 | 1 | 19 |
14 | Swansea CitySwansea | 15 | 5 | 4 | 6 | 11 | 10 | 1 | 19 |
15 | Sheffield WednesdaySheff Weds | 16 | 5 | 4 | 7 | 18 | 26 | -8 | 19 |
16 | Luton TownLuton | 16 | 5 | 3 | 8 | 18 | 26 | -8 | 18 |
17 | Coventry CityCoventry | 16 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 22 | 23 | -1 | 17 |
18 | Oxford UnitedOxford Utd | 16 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 19 | 24 | -5 | 17 |
19 | Plymouth ArgylePlymouth | 16 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 17 | 28 | -11 | 17 |
20 | Preston North EndPreston | 16 | 3 | 7 | 6 | 16 | 24 | -8 | 16 |
21 | Cardiff CityCardiff | 16 | 4 | 4 | 8 | 15 | 24 | -9 | 16 |
22 | Hull City | 16 | 3 | 6 | 7 | 16 | 21 | -5 | 15 |
23 | Portsmouth | 15 | 2 | 6 | 7 | 16 | 28 | -12 | 12 |
24 | Queens Park RangersQPR | 16 | 1 | 8 | 7 | 13 | 26 | -13 | 11 |
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