We said: Derby County 1-0 Plymouth Argyle
After a much-needed win at Coventry earlier in the week, Derby should be confident of putting a struggling Plymouth outfit to the sword at Pride Park.
Despite their recent home success over bottom side Portsmouth, we are not expecting the Pilgrims to record back-to-back maximums, with their woeful away form likely to continue this weekend.
Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Derby County win with a probability of 67.52%. A draw had a probability of 19.8% and a win for Plymouth Argyle had a probability of 12.66%.
The most likely scoreline for a Derby County win was 2-0 with a probability of 12.82%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (12.59%) and 2-1 (9.58%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.4%), while for a Plymouth Argyle win it was 0-1 (4.62%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 9.4% likelihood.