Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Derby County win with a probability of 45.02%. A win for Blackburn Rovers had a probability of 29.44% and a draw had a probability of 25.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Derby County win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.39%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.14%) and 0-2 (7.83%). The likeliest Blackburn Rovers win was 1-0 (8.06%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.13%). The actual scoreline of 4-2 was predicted with a 0.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that Blackburn Rovers would win this match.