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League One | Gameweek 46
Apr 27, 2024 at 12.30pm UK
Pride Park Stadium
Carlisle United

Derby
2 - 0
Carlisle

Bird (5'), Collins (59')
FT(HT: 1-0)

Neal (41')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's League One clash between Derby County and Carlisle United, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Derby County

All competitions
Last Game: Cambridge 0-1 Derby
Saturday, April 20 at 3pm in League One

Carlisle United

All competitions
Last Game: Carlisle 1-3 Wycombe
Saturday, April 20 at 3pm in League One

We said: Derby County 2-0 Carlisle United

 Heading into the game with home advantage and the desperation to get over the line with a victory, while boasting far more quality and momentum, we expect Derby County to make no mistake at Pride Park and come out on top to seal second spot and a return to the Championship. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Derby County win with a probability of 71.23%. A draw had a probability of 17.9% and a win for Carlisle United had a probability of 10.82%.

The most likely scoreline for a Derby County win was 2-0 with a probability of 12.97%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (11.76%) and 3-0 (9.54%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.53%), while for a Carlisle United win it was 0-1 (3.87%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 13% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted a 2-0 win for Derby County in this match.

Result
Derby CountyDrawCarlisle United
71.23% (-0.223 -0.22) 17.95% (0.079000000000001 0.08) 10.82% (0.151 0.15)
Both teams to score 45.9% (0.284 0.28)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
56.13% (0.085000000000001 0.09)43.87% (-0.080000000000005 -0.08)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
33.74% (0.082999999999998 0.08)66.26% (-0.076999999999998 -0.08)
Derby County Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
88.99% (-0.030000000000001 -0.03)11.01% (0.036999999999999 0.04)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
64.69% (-0.075999999999993 -0.08)35.31% (0.082000000000001 0.08)
Carlisle United Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
51.58% (0.34 0.34)48.42% (-0.334 -0.33)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
16.46% (0.247 0.25)83.54% (-0.241 -0.24)
Score Analysis
    Derby County 71.23%
    Carlisle United 10.82%
    Draw 17.95%
Derby CountyDrawCarlisle United
2-0 @ 12.97% (-0.09 -0.09)
1-0 @ 11.76% (-0.06 -0.06)
3-0 @ 9.54% (-0.077 -0.08)
2-1 @ 9.41% (0.028 0.03)
3-1 @ 6.92% (0.010000000000001 0.01)
4-0 @ 5.26% (-0.051 -0.05)
4-1 @ 3.82% (-0.00099999999999989 -0)
3-2 @ 2.51% (0.028 0.03)
5-0 @ 2.32% (-0.027 -0.03)
5-1 @ 1.68% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
4-2 @ 1.38% (0.013 0.01)
Other @ 3.64%
Total : 71.23%
1-1 @ 8.53% (0.038 0.04)
0-0 @ 5.33% (-0.018 -0.02)
2-2 @ 3.41% (0.043 0.04)
Other @ 0.67%
Total : 17.95%
0-1 @ 3.87% (0.024 0.02)
1-2 @ 3.09% (0.043 0.04)
0-2 @ 1.4% (0.021 0.02)
Other @ 2.45%
Total : 10.82%

How you voted: Derby vs Carlisle

Derby County
72.7%
Draw
18.2%
Carlisle United
9.1%
22
Head to Head
Sep 23, 2023 3pm
Gameweek 9
Carlisle
0-2
Derby

Lavelle (90+4')
Collins (18', 84')
Cashin (75')
Aug 23, 2016 7.45pm
Round Two
Derby
1-1
Carlisle
(Aggregate 1-1 | Derby win 14-13 on penalties)
Bent (56')
Jones (95')
Grainger (109')
Aug 11, 2014 7.45pm
Round One
Carlisle
0-2
Derby

Thirwell (49')
Hendrick (62'), Martin (90')
> Match Report
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
> View full version> Yesterday's results
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Wycombe WanderersWycombe19134243222143
2Birmingham CityBirmingham18133234161842
3Wrexham20125330131741
4Huddersfield TownHuddersfield19113530181236
5Stockport CountyStockport2096532211133
6Reading199463028231
7Barnsley208662926330
8Bolton WanderersBolton189362829-130
9Lincoln CityLincoln207762625128
10Blackpool197572931-226
11Mansfield TownMansfield187472222025
12Stevenage187471517-225
13Peterborough UnitedPeterborough197393735224
14Charlton AthleticCharlton196671819-124
15Exeter CityExeter197391721-424
16Wigan AthleticWigan196581716123
17Rotherham UnitedRotherham186571920-123
18Leyton Orient196491920-122
19Northampton TownNorthampton205692129-821
20Bristol Rovers1963101728-1121
21Crawley TownCrawley1954102032-1219
22Cambridge UnitedCambridge1945102031-1117
23Burton Albion1926111630-1412
24Shrewsbury TownShrewsbury1932141939-2011
> League One Full Table


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