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League One | Gameweek 46
Apr 27, 2024 at 12.30pm UK
Pride Park Stadium
Carlisle United

Derby
2 - 0
Carlisle

Bird (5'), Collins (59')
FT(HT: 1-0)

Neal (41')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's League One clash between Derby County and Carlisle United, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Derby County

All competitions
Last Game: Cambridge 0-1 Derby
Saturday, April 20 at 3pm in League One

Carlisle United

All competitions
Last Game: Carlisle 1-3 Wycombe
Saturday, April 20 at 3pm in League One

We said: Derby County 2-0 Carlisle United

 Heading into the game with home advantage and the desperation to get over the line with a victory, while boasting far more quality and momentum, we expect Derby County to make no mistake at Pride Park and come out on top to seal second spot and a return to the Championship. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Derby County win with a probability of 71.23%. A draw had a probability of 17.9% and a win for Carlisle United had a probability of 10.82%.

The most likely scoreline for a Derby County win was 2-0 with a probability of 12.97%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (11.76%) and 3-0 (9.54%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.53%), while for a Carlisle United win it was 0-1 (3.87%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 13% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted a 2-0 win for Derby County in this match.

Result
Derby CountyDrawCarlisle United
71.23% (-0.223 -0.22) 17.95% (0.079000000000001 0.08) 10.82% (0.151 0.15)
Both teams to score 45.9% (0.284 0.28)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
56.13% (0.085000000000001 0.09)43.87% (-0.080000000000005 -0.08)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
33.74% (0.082999999999998 0.08)66.26% (-0.076999999999998 -0.08)
Derby County Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
88.99% (-0.030000000000001 -0.03)11.01% (0.036999999999999 0.04)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
64.69% (-0.075999999999993 -0.08)35.31% (0.082000000000001 0.08)
Carlisle United Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
51.58% (0.34 0.34)48.42% (-0.334 -0.33)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
16.46% (0.247 0.25)83.54% (-0.241 -0.24)
Score Analysis
    Derby County 71.23%
    Carlisle United 10.82%
    Draw 17.95%
Derby CountyDrawCarlisle United
2-0 @ 12.97% (-0.09 -0.09)
1-0 @ 11.76% (-0.06 -0.06)
3-0 @ 9.54% (-0.077 -0.08)
2-1 @ 9.41% (0.028 0.03)
3-1 @ 6.92% (0.010000000000001 0.01)
4-0 @ 5.26% (-0.051 -0.05)
4-1 @ 3.82% (-0.00099999999999989 -0)
3-2 @ 2.51% (0.028 0.03)
5-0 @ 2.32% (-0.027 -0.03)
5-1 @ 1.68% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
4-2 @ 1.38% (0.013 0.01)
Other @ 3.64%
Total : 71.23%
1-1 @ 8.53% (0.038 0.04)
0-0 @ 5.33% (-0.018 -0.02)
2-2 @ 3.41% (0.043 0.04)
Other @ 0.67%
Total : 17.95%
0-1 @ 3.87% (0.024 0.02)
1-2 @ 3.09% (0.043 0.04)
0-2 @ 1.4% (0.021 0.02)
Other @ 2.45%
Total : 10.82%

How you voted: Derby vs Carlisle

Derby County
72.7%
Draw
18.2%
Carlisle United
9.1%
22
Head to Head
Sep 23, 2023 3pm
Gameweek 9
Carlisle
0-2
Derby

Lavelle (90+4')
Collins (18', 84')
Cashin (75')
Aug 23, 2016 7.45pm
Round Two
Derby
1-1
Carlisle
(Aggregate 1-1 | Derby win 14-13 on penalties)
Bent (56')
Jones (95')
Grainger (109')
Aug 11, 2014 7.45pm
Round One
Carlisle
0-2
Derby

Thirwell (49')
Hendrick (62'), Martin (90')
> Match Report
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> View full version> Yesterday's results
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Wycombe WanderersWycombe14102232161632
2Birmingham CityBirmingham1393124121230
3Wrexham1584322111128
4Stockport CountyStockport167632617927
5Barnsley157532419526
6Lincoln CityLincoln157532117426
7Mansfield TownMansfield137332015524
8Huddersfield TownHuddersfield147252114723
9Exeter CityExeter147251410423
10Reading147252221123
11Bolton WanderersBolton147252224-223
12Peterborough UnitedPeterborough156363127421
13Charlton AthleticCharlton145451515019
14Bristol Rovers155371621-518
15Stevenage155371116-518
16Northampton TownNorthampton154561821-317
17Rotherham UnitedRotherham154561418-417
18Blackpool154562128-717
19Wigan AthleticWigan143561212014
20Leyton Orient144281418-414
21Crawley TownCrawley163491427-1313
22Cambridge UnitedCambridge143291324-1111
23Burton Albion141581525-108
24Shrewsbury TownShrewsbury1522111327-148
> League One Full Table


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