Fresh off the back of ending their six-game winless run, Pacos de Ferreira take a trip to the Estadio Nacional do Jamor to face Belenenses in round 24 of the Primeira Liga on Friday.
O Belem, who are currently rooted to the bottom of the league standings, will be desperate to get one over the visitors having failed to win any of their last four meetings between the sides since 2019.
Match preview
© Reuters
Belenenses were sent crashing back down to earth in the Primeira Liga as they fell to a 2-0 defeat against Gil Vicente at the Estadio Cidade de Barcelos last Saturday.
Following an uneventful first half, Ricardo Soares's men upped the ante after the interval as Juan Calero and Elder Santana scored in a 10-minute spell to hand the hosts their sixth win in eight games.
This followed a slender 1-0 win over Vitoria de Guimaraes on February 13, when Brazilian forward Safira scored the only goal of the game in the 50th minute to end their five-game winless run.
The result once again highlighted Belenenses' struggles on the road this season as they are yet to taste victory away from home and boast the league's worst away record with just four points from 15 outings.
Following Saturday's defeat, Franclim Carvalho's men have also now lost 10 of their last 13 league outings and this poor run of results has seen them rooted to the bottom of the Primeira Liga standings with 15 points from 23 games.
© Reuters
Pacos de Ferreira, on the other hand, put in a resilient performance last time out when they came from behind to claim a 2-1 victory over Vizela at the Estadio Capital do Movel.
In a game where Cassiano and Samu both received red cards, Nuno Santos scored on the stroke of half time to cancel out Bruno Wilson's 24th-minute opener before 18-year-old Matchoi Djalo netted in the 64th minute to turn the tie on its head.
Prior to that, Cesar Peixoto's side were on a run of six games without a win, picking up four draws and losing twice — with both defeats coming away from home.
While Pacos de Ferreira will look to make it two wins from two in the league for just the second time this season, they have struggled for form on the road in recent weeks, claiming just one win from their last nine away games across all competitions.
However, they will feel confident of coming away with the desired result on Friday as they face an opposing side who they are unbeaten against in 19 of the last 20 meetings between the sides since 2008, claiming an impressive 11 wins and eight draws in that time.
The Pacenses have won five, drawn nine and lost nine of their 23 games in the Primeira Liga this season to collect 24 points and sit in 11th place in the standings, one point off Santa Clara just inside the top half of the table.
- L
- D
- L
- L
- W
- L
- D
- D
- D
- D
- L
- W
Team News
© Reuters
Belenenses will take to the pitch without the services of Nilton Varela, who picked up a groin injury just nine minutes into the game against Sporting Lisbon on February 2.
Another name on O Belem injury list is 23-year-old midfielder Chico Teixeira, who has been out of action since last September when he sustained a knee injury.
South African full-back Thibang Phete is also a doubt for the hosts after coming off injured after just 25 minutes against Gil Vicente last time out, while Rafael Camacho is currently recuperating from a muscle injury.
As for the visitors, Peixoto will be unable to call upon the services of Portuguese defender Joao Vigario, who has been sidelined since last August after picking up a knee injury.
Pacos de Ferreira will also have to cope with the absence of Jorge Silva after the 25-year-old defender sustained an injury in December's game against Tondela.
Flavio is also out of contention for the Pacenses as he continues his journey to full fitness after picking up a muscle injury in November's game against Maritimo.
Belenenses possible starting lineup:
Felipe; Akas, Phete, Tavares; Calila, Carraca, Sithole, Baraye, Sousa; Safira, Camara
Pacos de Ferreira possible starting lineup:
Ferreira; Antunes, Maracas, Baixinho, Delgado; Carlos, Pires; Silva, Uilton, Santos; Denilson
We say: Belenenses 0-2 Pacos de Ferreira
Buoyed by their victory over the Gilistas, Pacos de Ferreira will head into Friday's game with renewed confidence and fancy their chances against a struggling Belenenses side. They have been utterly dominant in the history of this fixture, claiming 11 wins and eight draws from their last 20 encounters. We predict Pacos de Ferreira will extend their dominance and pick up their second consecutive league win of the season.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Pacos de Ferreira win with a probability of 45.78%. A draw had a probability of 28.4% and a win for Belenenses had a probability of 25.78%.
The most likely scoreline for a Pacos de Ferreira win was 0-1 with a probability of 14.48%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (9.38%) and 1-2 (8.4%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.97%), while for a Belenenses win it was 1-0 (10.01%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 9.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 0-2 win for Pacos de Ferreira in this match and our data analysis correctly predicted the win for Pacos de Ferreira.
