AZ Alkmaar host the league leaders Ajax on Sunday in what is undoubtedly the standout fixture in round 20 of the Eredivisie.
The sides faced off 11 days ago in the last 16 of this season's KNVB-Beker, where Ajax came out on top in a 1-0 win courtesy of a Zakaria Labyad strike.
Match preview
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Following a 1-0 home defeat, AZ Alkmaar finally saw their eight-game unbeaten league run come to an end at the hands of FC Utrecht on Wednesday.
Pascal Jansen's men have failed to build upon an impressive 3-2 victory away at Feyenoord last Sunday, and are now 10 points adrift in the title race.
However, a victory this weekend would keep their hopes alive albeit faintly, while a defeat could be the final nail in their coffin.
The Cheeseheads will be hopeful of a repeat of last season's meeting at the AFAS Stadion, where they triumphed over Ajax.
AZ were behind Sunday's visitors only on goals scored before the league was abruptly ended due to coronavirus last season.
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Ajax picked up their fifth consecutive win in all competitions on Thursday by defeating 17th-placed Willem II 3-1 at home.
With the exception of a 2-2 draw against PSV Eindhoven to begin the year, Erik ten Hag's men have a perfect record since the turn of the year as they go in search of a 35th league title.
As things stand, they currently hold a four-point advantage over second-placed PSV in the Eredivisie table, and there is still work to do in ensuring that the title remains in Amsterdam this campaign.
De Godenzonen have the division's best record away from home, losing only to Groningen in all their Eredivisie games away from the Johan Cruyff ArenA this term.
AZ Alkmaar Eredivisie form: DDWWWL
AZ Alkmaar form (all competitions): DWWLWL
Ajax Eredivisie form: DDWWWW
Ajax form (all competitions): DWWWWW
Team News
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The departure of Klaas Jan Huntelaar to Schalke 04 is expected to translate into more opportunities in the first team for Brian Brobbey, who came off the bench to supply a goal and an assist in the win over Willem II.
Jurrien Timber and Edson Alvarez were both given a runout in midweek, but they are expected to drop back to the bench for this one.
Ron Vlaar has made a return to the bench following his recovery from a muscle injury, but AZ are not rushing him back into action just yet.
The home side will also have to make do with the absence of Dani De Wit, who remains on the sidelines with an ankle problem.
Jonas Svensson is making steady progress towards a return to action, but for now, Yukinari Sugawara will continue to fill in for him.
AZ Alkmaar possible starting lineup:
Bizot; Wijndal, Martins Indi, Hatzidiakos, Sugawara; Stengs, Koopmeiners, Midtsjo; Karlsson, Boadu, Gudmundsson
Ajax possible starting lineup:
Onana; Tagliafico, Blind, Schuurs, Mazraoui; Gravenberch, Promes, Klaassen; Tadic, Haller, Antony
We say: AZ Alkmaar 1-2 Ajax
Games between these two are usually tightly contested, and we expect that trend to continue in this one, but Ajax look more likely to secure the victory due to their superiority in player quality.
Top betting tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ajax win with a probability of 57.87%. A win for AZ Alkmaar had a probability of 21.8% and a draw had a probability of 20.3%.
The most likely scoreline for an Ajax win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.57%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (7.51%) and 1-3 (6.94%). The likeliest AZ Alkmaar win was 2-1 (5.62%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (8.8%). The actual scoreline of 0-3 was predicted with a 5.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Ajax would win this match.
