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Aston Villa logo
Premier League | Gameweek 9
Nov 21, 2020 at 3pm UK
Villa Park
Brighton logo

Aston Villa
1 - 2
Brighton

Konsa (47')
Targett (44'), Grealish (90+1')
FT(HT: 0-1)
Welbeck (12'), March (56')
Bissouma (69'), Lamptey (88')
Lamptey (90+1')

Preview: Aston Villa vs. Brighton & Hove Albion - prediction, team news, lineups

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Premier League clash between Aston Villa and Brighton & Hove Albion, including predictions, team news and form guide.

Two sides that have experienced contrasting starts to the 2020-21 Premier League campaign meet on Saturday afternoon as Aston Villa play host to Brighton & Hove Albion.

Villa beat Arsenal 3-0 last time out to move within three points of top spot with a game in hand to play, while Brighton have one win from eight and are in relegation danger.


Match preview

Aston Villa's Ross Barkley celebrates scoring against Leicester City in the Premier League on October 18, 2020© Reuters

Two months into the season and Villa have already defeated Liverpool 7-2 at home and Arsenal 3-0 away in what is shaping up to be a truly memorable campaign for the club.

The win at the Emirates Stadium two weeks ago came on the back of successive defeats - to Leeds United and Southampton - with many predicting the wheels had already fallen off.

If that latest famous victory in North London is anything to go by, however, then Dean Smith's men may just be able to challenge for a European spot this season.

To put their form in some context, they have five wins from seven games and have scored 18 goals, whereas last season it took them 19 games to reach five wins and 13 games to score 18 times.

Villa's form is in stark contrast to that of Brighton, who have earned praise for their style of play under Graham Potter but have struggled to find the results to match it.

Brighton & Hove Albion manager Graham Potter watches on during his side's EFL Cup match on September 23, 2020© Reuters

The goalless draw with Burnley last time out sums things up nicely for the Seagulls, who bossed possession and had 19 shots without finding a way past Nick Pope.

Potter is not oblivious to the fact that results are ultimately the most important thing in this game, with Brighton hovering just three points above the dropzone.

Albion are now winless in their last six league outings, drawing three and losing three, but 12 of their last 15 top-flight points have been won in away matches.

That provides them with a bit of hope heading into this weekend's trip to the West Midlands, though they have never managed to beat the Villans in 12 away attempts.

In fact, Brighton have lost all five of their top-flight meetings at Villa Park, including a 2-1 loss when the sides last met there in October 2019.

Aston Villa Premier League form: WWWLLW
Aston Villa form (all competitions): LWWLLW

Brighton & Hove Albion Premier League form: LLDDLD
Brighton & Hove Albion form (all competitions): LLDDLD


Team News

Jack Grealish warms up for Aston Villa on October 18, 2020© Reuters

Smith will be reluctant to make any changes on the back of his side's victory over Arsenal, especially having found his favoured XI - no team has made fewer changes to their starting lineups this term.

A number of players have been away on international duty, with Jack Grealish starting three games for England in a little over a week, but no injuries have been reported.

Incidentally, Grealish has scored in each of his last four appearances against Brighton in all competitions, netting in all three meetings last season.

As for the visitors, skipper Lewis Dunk is back from a three-match suspension and will almost certainly slot into the backline, with Joel Veltman the most likely to make way.

Solly March is pushing to be fit and, if that is the case, he should get the nod over Dan Burn at left wing-back.

In attack, Neal Maupay is back in favour again and will be looking to build on a return of four goals in seven Premier League appearances this season.

Aston Villa possible starting lineup:
Martinez; Cash, Konsa, Mings, Targett; Luiz, McGinn; Trezeguet, Barkley, Grealish; Watkins

Brighton & Hove Albion possible starting lineup:
Sanchez; Webster, Dunk, Burn; Lamptey, White, Bissouma, March; Lallana, Trossard; Maupay


SM words green background

We say: Aston Villa 1-0 Brighton & Hove Albion

The international break may have come at a good time for Brighton, giving Potter's men a chance to regroup after five games without a win.

Even accounting for back-to-back defeats to Southampton and Leeds, Villa have been superb this campaign and will be looking to pick up from where they left off this weekend.

On the basis of the form book, and Brighton's losing streak at Villa Park, we can only see this game ending one way.


Top betting tip

Our expert tipster partners at Sporita.com are predicting a double chance bet on a home win or an away win in this match. Click here to find out what else they are predicting for this game and for more of their tried-and-tested football tips.Home/Away:data



Video prediction

Watch the Sports Mole Football Shorts prediction for this game below:



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Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Brighton & Hove Albion win with a probability of 37.33%. A win for Aston Villa had a probability of 35.94% and a draw had a probability of 26.7%.

The most likely scoreline for a Brighton & Hove Albion win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.1%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.18%) and 0-2 (6.5%). The likeliest Aston Villa win was 1-0 (9.87%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.7%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with an 8.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Brighton & Hove Albion would win this match.


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Game History

Who will win Saturday's Premier League clash between Aston Villa and Brighton?

Aston Villa
76.2%
Draw
14.8%
Brighton
9.0%
412
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Jack Grealish warms up for Aston Villa on October 18, 2020
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Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Liverpool1210112481631
2Manchester CityMan City127232217523
3Chelsea126422314922
4Arsenal126422112922
5Brighton & Hove AlbionBrighton126422116522
6Tottenham HotspurSpurs1261527131419
7Nottingham ForestNott'm Forest125431513219
8Aston Villa125431919019
9Newcastle UnitedNewcastle115331311218
10Fulham125341717018
11Brentford125252222017
12Manchester UnitedMan Utd114341212015
13Bournemouth124351617-115
14West Ham UnitedWest Ham113351319-612
15Everton122551017-711
16Leicester CityLeicester122461523-810
17Wolverhampton WanderersWolves122372028-89
18Crystal Palace121561017-78
19Ipswich TownIpswich111551222-108
20Southampton121110924-154


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