River's last three games at El Monumental have ended in one-goal victories, and while Demichelis's men may not be blowing teams away, they should secure a routine win over Instituto. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a River Plate win with a probability of 76.44%. A draw had a probability of 15.8% and a win for Instituto had a probability of 7.72%.

The most likely scoreline for a River Plate win was 2-0 with a probability of 14.63%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (12.58%) and 3-0 (11.34%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.44%), while for a Instituto win it was 0-1 (3.2%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 6.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that River Plate would win this match.

Result
River Plate	Draw	Instituto
76.44% ( -6.81)	15.83% ( 4.01)	7.72% ( 2.81)

Both teams to score 40.26% (

2.06)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

55.78% (

-7.12)

44.22% (

7.12)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

33.41% (

-7.3)

66.6% (

7.3)

River Plate Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

90.23% (

-3.17)

9.77% (

3.17)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

67.5% (

-7.94)

32.5% (

7.94)

Instituto Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

44.62% (

3.72)

55.38% (

-3.72)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

11.9% (

2.08)

88.1% (

-2.08)

Score Analysis

River Plate 76.43%

Instituto 7.72%

Draw 15.83%

River Plate	Draw	Instituto
2-0 @ 14.63% ( 0.22) 1-0 @ 12.58% ( 1.98) 3-0 @ 11.34% ( -1.71) 2-1 @ 8.65% ( 1.07) 3-1 @ 6.7% ( -0.16) 4-0 @ 6.59% ( -2.27) 4-1 @ 3.9% ( -0.77) 5-0 @ 3.07% ( -1.75) 3-2 @ 1.98% ( 0.18) 5-1 @ 1.81% ( -0.72) 6-0 @ 1.19% ( -0.99) 4-2 @ 1.15% ( -0.08) Other @ 2.83% Total : 76.43%	1-1 @ 7.44% ( 1.86) 0-0 @ 5.41% ( 1.51) 2-2 @ 2.56% ( 0.56) Other @ 0.43% Total : 15.83%	0-1 @ 3.2% ( 1.15) 1-2 @ 2.2% ( 0.73) 0-2 @ 0.95% ( 0.41) Other @ 1.38% Total : 7.72%