African Nations Championship | Quarter-Finals

Jan 28, 2023 at 4pm UK

Madagascar
3 - 1
Mozambique

Razafindranaivo (18'), Yves Razafindrakoto (67'), Ravelomanantsoa (87')
Randriatsiferana (28')

FT(HT: 1-0)

Carvalho (90+4')
Divrassone (27'), Muze (90+1')

Preview

Data Analysis

Lineups

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's African Nations Championship clash between Madagascar and Mozambique, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Madagascar

All competitions

African Nations Championship

Last Game: Sudan 0-3 Madagascar
Monday, January 23 at 7pm in African Nations Championship

Current Group B Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Madagascar	3	3	7
2	Nigeria	3	0	6
3	Guinea	3	1	4
4	Burundi	3	-4	0

Mozambique

Last Game: Mozambique 0-1 Algeria
Saturday, January 21 at 7pm in African Nations Championship

We said: Madagascar 2-1 Mozambique

There is little separating the sides ahead of their meeting and the game could easily swing either way. That said, Mozambique just about look more solid at the moment, and we are leaning towards a victory for them come the end of the 90 minutes. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Mozambique win with a probability of 41.48%. A draw had a probability of 30.2% and a win for Madagascar had a probability of 28.37%.

The most likely scoreline for a Mozambique win was 0-1 with a probability of 14.9%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (8.55%) and 1-2 (7.64%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (13.32%), while for a Madagascar win it was 1-0 (11.61%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 1.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that Madagascar would win this match.

Result
Madagascar	Draw	Mozambique
28.37% ( 0.07)	30.15% ( -0.49)	41.48% ( 0.42)

Both teams to score 40.3% (

1.17)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

33.41% (

1.4)

66.59% (

-1.39)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

15.02% (

0.94)

84.99% (

-0.94)

Madagascar Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

59.08% (

0.87)

40.93% (

-0.87)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

22.51% (

0.77)

77.49% (

-0.77)

Mozambique Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

68.22% (

0.98)

31.78% (

-0.98)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

31.79% (

1.11)

68.21% (

-1.11)

Score Analysis

Madagascar 28.36%

Mozambique 41.47%

Draw 30.15%

Madagascar	Draw	Mozambique
1-0 @ 11.61% ( -0.33) 2-1 @ 5.95% ( 0.14) 2-0 @ 5.19% ( -0.02) 3-1 @ 1.77% ( 0.08) 3-0 @ 1.55% ( 0.03) 3-2 @ 1.02% ( 0.07) Other @ 1.28% Total : 28.36%	1-1 @ 13.32% ( -0.01) 0-0 @ 13% ( -0.69) 2-2 @ 3.41% ( 0.17) Other @ 0.41% Total : 30.15%	0-1 @ 14.9% ( -0.38) 0-2 @ 8.55% ( 0.02) 1-2 @ 7.64% ( 0.2) 0-3 @ 3.27% ( 0.1) 1-3 @ 2.92% ( 0.15) 2-3 @ 1.3% ( 0.1) 0-4 @ 0.94% ( 0.05) Other @ 1.97% Total : 41.47%