We said: Sierra Leone 1-2 Zambia
With their fate already sealed, Tuesday's game is a dead rubber for Sierra Leone, while Zambia will be aiming to beat Ivory Coast to first place in the table. The Chipolopolo boast a significantly superior squad on paper and we fancy them to close out the qualifying campaign on a high.
Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Zambia win with a probability of 46.78%. A win for Sierra Leone had a probability of 26.66% and a draw had a probability of 26.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Zambia win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.36%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.03%) and 0-2 (8.89%). The likeliest Sierra Leone win was 1-0 (8.74%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.56%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with an 8.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Zambia would win this match.