Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Adelaide United win with a probability of 39.35%. A win for Central Coast Mariners had a probability of 38.67% and a draw had a probability of 22%.
The most likely scoreline for an Adelaide United win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.02%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (4.99%) and 3-1 (4.82%). The likeliest Central Coast Mariners win was 1-2 (7.95%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (8.9%). The actual scoreline of 1-4 was predicted with a 2.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that Central Coast Mariners would win this match.