Bayer Leverkusen could well find themselves dropping out of the Bundesliga top four should they fall to another defeat when they travel to Wolfsburg on Sunday.
The visitors have suffered a sudden drop in form in recent weeks, whilst the hosts have still performed well below expectations all season despite a slight improvement in the last six games.
Match preview
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After falling 2-0 behind at top-four hopefuls Freiburg before half time last weekend, Wolfsburg looked on course for a heavy defeat.
However, after Max Kruse pulled a goal back shortly after the break, Maximilian Arnold looked to have stole a point for the visitors when he equalised six minutes from time following a much-improved display in the second 45.
Freiburg's Nico Schlotterbeck had other ideas though, as the defender restored the home side's lead just three minutes later, to leave Die Wolfe's fightback all for nothing come the final whistle.
The result means that Florian Kohfeldt's side have picked up just the one win in their last four outings now, which leaves them down in a disappointing position of 12th in the table heading into matchday 27.
With 13 points separating Wolfsburg from the top six, hopes of continental qualification are all but over following their dreadful follow up to last season's fourth-placed finish.
Although, only an eight-point gap now remains between Sunday's hosts and the relegation zone, so Kohfeldt will be eager for his side to pick up some important points either side of the international break to ensure that they are not dragged into a potentially catastrophic relegation battle.
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Meanwhile, Leverkusen's position inside the Bundesliga's Champions League places is coming under serious threat as a result of their dip in form over recent weeks.
Thirteen points from a possible 15 to begin the year looked to have Gerardo Seoane's side finishing comfortably in third come May, but with just one win in their last four league matches, and four defeats from six games across all competitions, the chasing pack has cut the gap to just one point.
Excellent form from the trio of RB Leipzig, Freiburg and Hoffenheim since the turn of the year means that Die Werkself could well find themselves as low as sixth come the end of play on Sunday, should they fail to register three points again at the Volkswagen Arena.
Last weekend's narrow 1-0 home loss was disappointing on so many levels, but particularly hurtful considering it came at the hands of their rivals FC Koln.
Leverkusen created some glorious opportunities throughout the derby, but their scintillating finish from the opening weeks of 2022 was missing once again.
Defeats home and away to Atalanta in the Europa League either side of that result means it is three successive losses ahead of Sunday's trip to Wolfsburg, and with an exit from Europe potentially being followed by a drop out of the Bundesliga top four should they fail to bounce back, Leverkusen's season could well be taking a huge turn for the worse in the space of a few days.
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Team News
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First-choice goalkeeper Koen Casteels is likely to miss out for Wolfsburg once more on Sunday, with the Belgian being ruled out of last weekend's defeat to Freiburg due to a hip problem.
Pavao Pervan is therefore likely to be required in between the posts again, but Kohfeldt has no fresh injury concerns to contend with.
As a result, the absences of William, Micky van de Ven and Paulo Otavio make up the list of absentees for the hosts.
The influential Lukas Nmecha continued his comeback from a broken ankle with a 35-minute appearance off the bench last week, but it remains likely that the 23-year-old will have to wait until after the international break for his first start since December.
As for the visitors, the damaging defeat to their rivals last week was made worse by the injuries picked up by Jeremie Frimpong and Florian Wirtz inside the first half.
Wirtz will miss the remainder of the season with a serious knee injury, and the duo will join top goalscorer Patrik Schick on the sidelines, whose 20 Bundesliga goals this season will continue to be sorely missed until after the international break.
Andrey Lunev, Karim Bellarabi and Odilon Kossounou are all missing for the next couple of weeks as well in a lengthy list of absentees for Seoane to contend with.
Wolfsburg possible starting lineup:
Pervan; Lacroix, Bornauw, Brooks; Baku, Schlager, Arnold, Roussillon; Vranckx, Kruse; Wind
Bayer Leverkusen possible starting lineup:
Hradecky; Fosu-Mensah, Tah, Tapsoba, Bakker; Aranguiz, Demirbay; Diaby, Adli, Paulinho; Alario
We say: Wolfsburg 1-1 Bayer Leverkusen
With neither side on a convincing run of form in recent weeks, we can see both failing to provide the quality required to come out with all three points on Sunday.
Wolfsburg have struggled for goals all season, whilst Leverkusen are missing their two greatest threats in the form of Wirtz and Schick, so although goals are usually expected whenever the visitors are playing, we can see there being a lack of goalmouth action here.
Top tip
Matthew Tranter
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Wolfsburg win with a probability of 38.25%. A win for Bayer Leverkusen had a probability of 37.86% and a draw had a probability of 23.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Wolfsburg win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.41%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.04%) and 2-0 (5.46%). The likeliest Bayer Leverkusen win was 1-2 (8.37%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.85%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 5.4% likelihood.
