Two sides who have yet to open their accounts in the Copa Libertadores group stages lock horns in Santiago on Wednesday night, when Universidad Catolica host Club Nacional.
The Chilean outfit have failed to score in four of their last five matches in all competitions, while their Uruguayan visitors have conceded six goals from their opening two Group F games this season.
Match preview
After losing 2-0 in their opening two group stage matches to Atletico Nacional and Argentinos Juniors, Universidad Catolica were defeated for the third game in succession last weekend, losing in the Chilean Primeira Division away at Melipilla by the same scoreline.
Second-half strikes from Mathias Vidangossy and Gonzalo Ariel Sosa secured all three points for the hosts and saw Catolica drop down to seventh in the top flight, three points behind league leaders Audax Italiano with a game in hand.
Manager Gus Poyet has had a mixed start to life in charge of the Crusaders. Since winning the Supercopa de Chile final in March, his first game at the helm, Catolica have won three games and lost four in all competitions.
Catolica have failed to progress from the group stages of the Copa Libertadores in the last two campaigns, and unless their form turns around quickly, they could be on course to drop out at this stage once again this season.
Nacional lost their opening game in Group F to Argentinos Juniors, but they responded in their second match with a thrilling 4-4 draw against Atletico Nacional last Wednesday.
The scores were level at 1-1 as half time approached, however an eventful final few minutes saw Guzman Corujo sent off for the hosts before both sides scored in stoppage time, with the match ending 2-2 in the first 45.
Playing with 10 men in the second half did not seem to affect Club Nacional as Gonzalo Bergessio completed his hat-trick, which gave the hosts a two-goal cushion. However, the Colombian side fought back in the final 15 minutes, with a late equaliser from Jarlan Barrera forcing the two teams to share the spoils in Montevideo.
Nacional's primary focus is now on the Copa Libertadores as their Uruguayan Primeira Division campaign finished in March, with Alejandro Capuccio's side sealing their second consecutive top-flight title and the 48th in their history.
Victory against Catolica could take them into the top two in Group F if Atletico Nacional were to lose against group leaders Argentinos Juniors.
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Team News
Universidad Catolica midfielder Felipe Gutierrez, who has recently recovered from a serious knee injury, could be in line for his first start for the club since joining earlier this year.
He could be joined in the middle of the pitch by Diego Buonanotte and Ignacio Saavedra, while wingers Diego Valencia and Gaston Lezcano may support striker Fernando Zampedri in attack.
For Club Nacional, Corujo is suspended which is likely to see either Angelo Gabrielli or Renzo Orihuela start in the back three alongside Mathias Laborda and Christian Almeida.
Bergessio was in brilliant form in front of goal last week and is set to lead the line once again for the visitors.
The 36-year-old striker – who has found the net nine times in his last five matches in all competitions, including two hat-tricks – could be supported in attack by Leandro Fernandez.
Universidad Catolica possible starting lineup:
Dituro; Fuenzalida, Astaburuaga, Huerta, Parot; Buonanotte, Saavedra, Gutierrez; Valencia, Zampedri, Lezcano
Nacional possible starting lineup:
Centurion; Laborda, Gabrielli, Almeida; Ocampo, Carballo, Toranza, Trasante, Candido; Fernandez, Bergessio
We say: Universidad Catolica 0-1 Nacional
Universidad Catolica have kept just four clean sheets from 18 games in all competitions since the turn of the year, while Club Nacional have scored 11 goals in their last six matches.
Both sides need to win to keep their hopes of progressing to the knockout stages alive, but we feel that the visitors have the slight edge and may secure a slender victory in the Chilean capital.
Top tip
Oliver Thomas
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Universidad Catolica win with a probability of 40.76%. A win for Nacional had a probability of 37.79% and a draw had a probability of 21.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Universidad Catolica win was 2-1 with a probability of 7.91%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-1 (5.04%) and 3-2 (4.62%). The likeliest Nacional win was 1-2 (7.6%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (8.28%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Universidad Catolica would win this match.
