Atletico Mineiro are in the driver's seat heading into the second leg of their Copa Libertadores semi-final tie with River Plate, which takes place on Tuesday at Estadio Mas Monumental.
In the opening leg between these two last week, Mineiro came away with a 3-0 triumph, giving them a decisive edge heading to Belgrano.
Match preview
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After a disastrous outing in Belo Horizonte last week, Marcelo Gallardo and his River Plate side have a mountainous task in leg number two.
That was the first defeat that they suffered in the Libertadores this year and the first time they had failed to find the back of the net in the competition this season.
They are in a similar position to what we saw in 2020 when they lost their opening semi-final leg versus Palmeiras 3-0 but won leg two in Brazil 2-0.
Entering this match, River Plate are winless in five successive matches across all competitions, failing to score in four of those instances.
The Argentines have a 100% record at home in the competition this year, conceding only one goal in five matches played in Belgrano.
Los Millonarios have not lost a home game in this tournament versus Brazilian opposition since 2021, when they were beaten 3-1 by Fluminense in the group stage.
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After a strong opening leg, Atletico Mineiro are on the cusp of a place in the Libertadores final for the first time since lifting the trophy in 2013.
Gabriel Milito's men are on a three-match winless run away from home in this competition, losing their quarter-final road contest in the Libertadores this year versus Fluminense 1-0.
Mineiro have never been eliminated from a knockout tie at the Libertadores when winning the opening leg, though they have never won an away game in the semi-finals of this tournament.
Over the weekend, Galo saw a six-match unbeaten run across all competitions end with a 3-1 defeat domestically at home to Internacional.
Since a 4-2 defeat versus Flamengo in July, they have not lost in their last 12 competitive matches when netting multiple times over 90 minutes.
Galo have won four of their five all-time Libertadores meetings with River Plate and did not concede in any of those triumphs, including a 1-0 win at Mas Monumental in the 2021 quarter-finals.
Team News
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A shoulder issue prevented Rodrigo Aliendro from featuring in the opening leg of this tie for River Plate, Agustin Sant'Anna was sidelined with a sore knee and Marcos Acuna was unavailable because of a hamstring injury.
Three new faces who did not begin their second leg quarter-final match came into the starting 11 for the opening leg of this tie, as Paulo Diaz, Enzo Diaz and Nicolas Fonseca replaced Acuna, Matias Kranevitter and Maximiliano Meza.
There are two players questionable for Atletico Mineiro on Tuesday, as Bernard and Cadu are still recovering from knee injuries and are not projected to return until late November.
A brace from Deyverson helped Galo win the opening leg, with their other goal coming courtesy of Paulinho, while Everson only had to make one stop for the clean sheet.
River Plate possible starting lineup:
Armani; Bustos, P. Diaz, Pezzella, Gonzalez-Pirez; Simon, Kranevitter, Fernandez; Bareiro, Borja, Colidio
Atletico Mineiro possible starting lineup:
Everson; Lyanco, Battaglia, Alonso; Scarpa, Otavio, Franco, Arana; Hulk, Paulinho; Deyverson
We say: River Plate 2-1 Atletico Mineiro (Atletico Mineiro advances 4-2 on aggregate)
It would be a stretch for a side as consistent and strong as Mineiro to lose by three goals, and although River Plate have plenty of firepower, we do not believe it will be enough to turn this tie in their favour.
For data analysis of the most likely results, scorelines and more for this match please click here.
Joel Lefevre
