The Houston Dynamo will try to claim their first road victory of this campaign when they pay a visit to Rio Tinto Stadium to face Real Salt Lake on Saturday.
The Dynamo kept their undefeated home record intact on Wednesday by drawing 2-2 with the Portland Timbers, while Salt Lake lost a heartbreaker 2-1 to the Seattle Sounders in midweek.
Match preview
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Real Salt Lake have not always been impressive in the 2021 regular season, but they have found a way to earn points, and that could pay huge dividends when November rolls around, and we find out who will be playing for the MLS Cup.
Claret and Cobalt have been invisible through large stretches of some games this season, but they have only come away empty-handed on two occasions when the final whistle blows.
Manager Freddy Juarez has had the luxury of some individually gifted players who have bailed this team out when they have struggled, particularly Damir Kreilach, who has four goals in his last four fixtures.
Salt Lake had 60% of the possession in their last home match against the Vancouver Whitecaps, and they are likely to have a lot more against a Houston team who like to hang back and catch you on the counter.
With only eight games played so far, the fewest among Western Conference teams, Salt Lake could give themselves a lot of breathing room in the MLS playoff picture, as they host the Dynamo, followed by Los Angeles FC, with Houston just a point above Salt Lake while LA trail them for the final playoff spot on goal difference.
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Houston have been getting by throughout this season, not losing consistently but also not being able to string together a lot of winning runs.
If they can earn a result on Saturday, it would be the second time in 2021 that they have put together a three-match unbeaten run.
Under Tab Ramos, this team seem to allow their opponents to dominate the game for significant stretches before catching them on the break, as evidenced by the fact that they have had over 40% of the ball in just four of their 10 games all season.
A reason why they struggle to keep the ball for long stretches could come down to the fact that their pass accuracy has let them down, clicking at less than 80% in that capacity in all but two of their matches so far.
When a scoring opportunity presents itself, they know they had better make it count, as they have only fired more than five shots on target in one game to this point.
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Team News
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Real Salt Lake defender Erik Holt notched his first-ever MLS goal in their last home fixture versus the Whitecaps, which ended up being the game-winner.
Albert Rusnak scored his first goal of the season from the penalty spot against Seattle, while Rubio Rubin is goalless in his last three games after notching four in the opening five fixtures.
Houston could be without centre-back Ethan Bartlow, who is suffering from a concussion sustained back in early April.
Left-back Sam Junqua played a full 90 minutes versus LAFC for the first time since his concussion a couple of months ago but played only two minutes against the Sounders plus injury time.
Goalkeeper Marko Maric has conceded 10 goals in his five road games this season, having faced a total of 27 shots in that time.
Real Salt Lake possible starting lineup:
Ochoa; Herrera, Glad, Holt, Brody; Besler, Luiz; Julio, Kreilach, Rusnak; Rubin
Houston Dynamo possible starting lineup:
Maric; Lundqvist, Figueroa, Bizama, Valentin; Garcia, Corona, Vera; Lassiter, Urruti, Quintero
We say: Real Salt Lake 2-1 Houston Dynamo
The Dynamo have not been shut out all season, but they have only defeated Salt Lake twice in Utah in regular-season play, with their last victory coming in September 2016 by a score of 1-0.
Salt Lake have been digging deep throughout the year, but they have been able to get results, thanks to some outstanding individual performances which could make the difference in this one.
Top tip
Joel Lefevre
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Real Salt Lake win with a probability of 49.39%. A win for Houston Dynamo had a probability of 25.36% and a draw had a probability of 25.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Real Salt Lake win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.45%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.42%) and 2-0 (8.98%). The likeliest Houston Dynamo win was 0-1 (7.66%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12% likelihood.
