After sweeping through their first qualifying tie, Qarabag FK meet Bulgarian champions Ludogorets Razgrad on Tuesday, as they begin their battle for a place in the Champions League playoffs.
The Azeri side crushed Lincoln Red Imps to reach the third round, while their visitors for this week's first leg have already come through two knockout contests.
Match preview
![Coach Gurban Gurbanov of Qarabag FK looks on as his side face Bayer 04 Leverkusen in the second leg of the Europa League Round of 16 - 14/03/2024 [on July 28, 2024]](https://sm.imgix.net/24/30/gurban-gurbanov.jpg?w=640&h=480&auto=compress,format&fit=clip "Coach Gurban Gurbanov of Qarabag FK looks on as his side face Bayer 04 Leverkusen in the second leg of the Europa League Round of 16 - 14/03/2024 [on July 28, 2024]")
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Normal service continued in Azerbaijan's Premier League last season, as Qarabag claimed their 10th domestic title in 11 years by posting 83 points - their only failure to take top spot during that time came in the 2020-21 campaign.
As a result, the Baku-based club entered the Champions League's qualifying process at the second round stage, with a tie against Gibraltar's Lincoln Red Imps, and Gurban Gurbanov's side made short work of their opening opponents.
Having won the first leg 2-0 away from home, the Horsemen scored five times on home turf one week later, with Brazilian forward Juninho helping himself to a hat-trick.
Qarabag have developed a strong pedigree in UEFA competition since Gurbanov took charge back in 2008, and last term's Europa League run only ended when they were victims of a trademark Bayer Leverkusen comeback in the last 16.
Two stoppage-time goals from Patrick Schick knocked them out on that occasion, but they now have designs on reaching the expanded Champions League group phase, which would guarantee a minimum of eight matches.
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While Qarabag kicked off the defence of their title with a 4-1 defeat of Araz-Naxcivan last week, their third round opponents have posted two wins from two in the league so far this summer - beating CSKA Sofia 1-0 before putting five past Arda.
Ludogorets are already battle-hardened, as they have also seen off Dinamo Batumi in their first Champions League qualifier, then edged past Dinamo Minsk 2-1 on aggregate in the next round.
Having lost the second leg of the latter tie, George Dermendzhiev's side are on a streak of six consecutive away defeats in the Champions League preliminaries, so they will be aiming to halt that run in Baku.
The Eagles are one of the few clubs whose domestic dominance exceeds that of Qarabag, as they won their 13th straight Bulgarian First League title in 2023-24 - and they also have a good recent record in Europe.
While Ludogorets have reached the group phase of a UEFA competition in each of the last eight seasons, not since 2016 have they successfully qualified for the Champions League.
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Team News
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Qarabag coach Gurban Gurbanov can call upon a wealth of European experience, and he has plenty of firepower at his disposal too.
Juninho already has four goals in qualifying, while French winger Abdellah Zoubir scored a hat-trick in pre-season and has 13 strikes to his name in UEFA competition.
Meanwhile, Montenegro internationals Marko Vesovic and Marko Jankovic are set to start in midfield and at right-back respectively.
Ludogorets' Ghanaian forward Bernard Tekpetey has two goals in this season's Champions League qualifiers so far, while Todor Nedelev has found the net five times in 14 European games to date.
There are a number of candidates to take the centre-forward role on Tuesday evening, but Swiss striker Kwadwo Duah - who recently scored at Euro 2024 - and Rwan Seco head the queue for selection.
Portuguese defender Dinis Almeida is set to feature in the visitors' back four, alongside Aslak Fonn Witry, Olivier Verdon and captain Anton Nedyalkov.
Qarabag FK possible starting lineup:
Magomedaliyev; Vesovic, Mustafazada, Medina, Bayramov; Jankovic, Romao; Andrade, Benzia, Zoubir; Juninho
Ludogorets Razgrad possible starting lineup:
Padt; Witry, Verdon, Almeida, Nedyalkov; Naressi, Nedelev, Chochev; Rick, Duah, Tekpetey
We say: Qarabag FK 2-1 Ludogorets Razgrad
As Ludogorets do not tend to travel well in Europe, a tough trip to Tofiq Bahramov Stadium may see their losing streak away from home continue.
Vastly experienced, Qarabag are similarly dominant domestically, and their fine Europa League run last term demonstrates just how dangerous they can be.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Qarabag FK win with a probability of 41.2%. A win for Ludogorets Razgrad had a probability of 33.89% and a draw had a probability of 24.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Qarabag FK win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.82%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.69%) and 2-0 (6.55%). The likeliest Ludogorets Razgrad win was 1-2 (7.87%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.69%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 7.9% likelihood.
Jonathan O'Shea
