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Premier League | Gameweek 14
Oct 29, 2022 at 3pm UK
St James' Park
Aston Villa logo

Newcastle
4 - 0
Aston Villa

Wilson (45+5' pen., 56'), Joelinton (59'), Almiron (67')
Joelinton (65')
FT(HT: 1-0)

Watkins (45+5')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Premier League clash between Newcastle United and Aston Villa, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Spurs 1-2 Newcastle
Sunday, October 23 at 4.30pm in Premier League
Last Game: Aston Villa 4-0 Brentford
Sunday, October 23 at 2pm in Premier League

We said: Newcastle United 2-0 Aston Villa

Villa got a huge lift from their result last week, but St. James' Park has become one of the toughest place to visit in the country, so this will be difficult for Danks and his side. Newcastle have kept three clean sheets in their six home games this season, and they looked very comfortable in defence when they faced Everton in their last fixture here, so a similar result looks likely. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Newcastle United win with a probability of 47.71%. A win for Aston Villa had a probability of 26.63% and a draw had a probability of 25.7%.

The most likely scoreline for a Newcastle United win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.43%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.28%) and 2-0 (8.69%). The likeliest Aston Villa win was 0-1 (8.03%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.2%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 1.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Newcastle United would win this match.

Result
Newcastle UnitedDrawAston Villa
47.71% (-0.016999999999996 -0.02) 25.66% (0.011000000000003 0.01) 26.63% (0.0070000000000014 0.01)
Both teams to score 51.27% (-0.024000000000001 -0.02)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
47.85% (-0.034000000000006 -0.03)52.15% (0.033000000000001 0.03)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
26.13% (-0.030999999999999 -0.03)73.87% (0.030000000000001 0.03)
Newcastle United Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
78.14% (-0.02300000000001 -0.02)21.86% (0.023 0.02)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
44.9% (-0.033000000000001 -0.03)55.1% (0.033000000000001 0.03)
Aston Villa Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
65.61% (-0.010999999999996 -0.01)34.39% (0.011000000000003 0.01)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
28.9% (-0.012 -0.01)71.1% (0.012 0.01)
Score Analysis
    Newcastle United 47.71%
    Aston Villa 26.63%
    Draw 25.66%
Newcastle UnitedDrawAston Villa
1-0 @ 11.43% (0.0099999999999998 0.01)
2-1 @ 9.28% (-0.0020000000000007 -0)
2-0 @ 8.69% (-0.00099999999999945 -0)
3-1 @ 4.7% (-0.0040000000000004 -0)
3-0 @ 4.4% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
3-2 @ 2.51% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
4-1 @ 1.79% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
4-0 @ 1.67% (-0.002 -0)
4-2 @ 0.95% (-0.001 -0)
Other @ 2.29%
Total : 47.71%
1-1 @ 12.2% (0.0099999999999998 0.01)
0-0 @ 7.52% (0.0099999999999998 0.01)
2-2 @ 4.95% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
Other @ 0.99%
Total : 25.66%
0-1 @ 8.03% (0.0080000000000009 0.01)
1-2 @ 6.51% (0.0010000000000003 0)
0-2 @ 4.28% (0.0039999999999996 0)
1-3 @ 2.32% (-0.00099999999999989 -0)
2-3 @ 1.76% (-0.00099999999999989 -0)
0-3 @ 1.52% (0.0010000000000001 0)
Other @ 2.2%
Total : 26.63%

How you voted: Newcastle vs Aston Villa

Newcastle United
Draw
Aston Villa
Newcastle United
79.1%
Draw
12.0%
Aston Villa
9.0%
234
Head to Head
Feb 13, 2022 2pm
Newcastle
1-0
Aston Villa
Trippier (35')
Joelinton (39'), Burn (66'), Shelvey (82')

McGinn (42'), Luiz (89'), Bailey (90+5'), Ramsey (90+7')
Aug 21, 2021 3pm
Aston Villa
2-0
Newcastle
Ings (45+3'), El Ghazi (62' pen.)
Luiz (45+1'), Martinez (75'), Buendia (85')

Wilson (41'), Hayden (45'), Murphy (57'), Schar (84')
Mar 12, 2021 8pm
Newcastle
1-1
Aston Villa
Lascelles (90+4')
Krafth (52'), Lascelles (68')
Watkins (86')
McGinn (74'), Sanson (77'), Mings (78')
Jan 23, 2021 8pm
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Liverpool29217169274270
2Arsenal291610353242958
3Nottingham ForestNott'm Forest29166749351454
4Chelsea29147853371649
5Manchester CityMan City29146955401548
6Newcastle UnitedNewcastle2814594738947
7Brighton & Hove AlbionBrighton29121164842647
8Fulham2912984338545
9Aston Villa2912984145-445
10Bournemouth29128948361244
11Brentford29125125045541
12Crystal Palace2810993633339
13Tottenham HotspurSpurs291041555431234
14Everton2971393236-434
15Manchester UnitedMan Utd2897123440-634
16West Ham UnitedWest Ham2997133349-1634
17Wolverhampton WanderersWolves2975174058-1826
18Ipswich TownIpswich2938182862-3417
19Leicester CityLeicester2845192562-3717
20Southampton2923242170-499


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