Newcastle4 - 0Aston Villa
The Match
Preview
Form, Standings, Stats
Sunday, October 23 at 4.30pm in Premier League
Sunday, October 23 at 2pm in Premier League
We said: Newcastle United 2-0 Aston Villa
Villa got a huge lift from their result last week, but St. James' Park has become one of the toughest place to visit in the country, so this will be difficult for Danks and his side. Newcastle have kept three clean sheets in their six home games this season, and they looked very comfortable in defence when they faced Everton in their last fixture here, so a similar result looks likely. Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Newcastle United win with a probability of 47.71%. A win for Aston Villa had a probability of 26.63% and a draw had a probability of 25.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Newcastle United win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.43%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.28%) and 2-0 (8.69%). The likeliest Aston Villa win was 0-1 (8.03%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.2%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 1.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Newcastle United would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Newcastle United | Draw | Aston Villa |
47.71% ( -0.02) | 25.66% ( 0.01) | 26.63% ( 0.01) |
| Both teams to score 51.27% ( -0.02) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 47.85% ( -0.03) | 52.15% ( 0.03) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 26.13% ( -0.03) | 73.87% ( 0.03) |
| Newcastle United Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 78.14% ( -0.02) | 21.86% ( 0.02) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 44.9% ( -0.03) | 55.1% ( 0.03) |
| Aston Villa Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 65.61% ( -0.01) | 34.39% ( 0.01) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 28.9% ( -0.01) | 71.1% ( 0.01) |
| Score Analysis |
| Newcastle United | Draw | Aston Villa |
| 1-0 @ 11.43% ( 0.01) 2-1 @ 9.28% ( -0)2-0 @ 8.69% ( -0)3-1 @ 4.7% ( -0)3-0 @ 4.4% ( -0)3-2 @ 2.51% ( -0)4-1 @ 1.79% ( -0)4-0 @ 1.67% ( -0)4-2 @ 0.95% ( -0)Other @ 2.29% Total : 47.71% | 1-1 @ 12.2% ( 0.01) 0-0 @ 7.52% ( 0.01)2-2 @ 4.95% ( -0)Other @ 0.99% Total : 25.66% | 0-1 @ 8.03% ( 0.01) 1-2 @ 6.51% ( 0)0-2 @ 4.28% ( 0)1-3 @ 2.32% ( -0)2-3 @ 1.76% ( -0)0-3 @ 1.52% ( 0)Other @ 2.2% Total : 26.63% |
How you voted: Newcastle vs Aston Villa
