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World Cup Group C permutations: Who needs what to qualify for the last 16?

Ahead of the final matchday in World Cup Group C, Sports Mole looks at what Argentina, Poland, Saudi Arabia and Mexico need to qualify for the last 16.

The World Cup group stage continues its completion with a hotly-contested Group C to conclude when all four sides play at 7pm GMT on Wednesday.

All four teams in the group still have a chance of qualifying to the knockout stages going into their final matches of the group stage, with three sides able to finish in first and avoid a likely last-16 tie with current holders France.

Poland sit top heading into the final round of matches with four points, Argentina and Saudi Arabia have three points each and Mexico have plenty of work to do in order to progress, having collected just one point from their opening two games.

Here, Sports Mole looks at what each team needs to qualify for the last 16 of the 2022 World Cup.



POLAND

Poland's Robert Lewandowski celebrates scoring their second goal with teammates on November 26, 2022© Reuters

Poland are sitting pretty at the top of Group C heading into the final matchday, having amassed four points thanks to an opening-game draw with Mexico and a 2-0 success over Saudi Arabia last time out.

Although Poland's fate is in their own hands, they still have quite the task to qualify given that they face Argentina and Lionel Messi in their final match of the section at Stadium 974.

The Eagles will be through to the knockout stages with a win or a draw against Argentina, with all three points enough to secure top spot in the group, although a draw would be enough for first place if Saudi Arabia fail to beat Mexico.

If Poland lose and Saudi Arabia beat Mexico, Robert Lewandowski and his side would be knocked out of the competition, whereas a Polish loss coupled with a Saudi Arabia draw would mean the two sides would be equal on four points and would have to be separated by goal difference and potentially goals scored.

A Poland loss combined with a Mexico win would see those two teams equal on four points, meaning they would have to be separated by goal difference, a metric in which Poland are currently four goals better off in.



ARGENTINA

Argentina's Lionel Messi celebrates scoring their first goal on November 26, 2022© Reuters

Despite questionable performances in their first two matches, Argentina have three points to their name and still have their World Cup fate in their own hands heading into a clash with Poland.

La Albiceleste know a win will secure qualification to the knockout stages - in fact three points would be enough to claim top spot in the group as long as Saudi Arabia do not defeat Mexico by a margin that overturns the two-goal deficit between themselves and Argentina in the goal difference column.

A draw for Argentina would see them through if Saudi Arabia and Mexico also draw, but a point for Lionel Scaloni's men accompanied by a Saudi Arabia win would mean Argentina head home on Wednesday night.

If Mexico are able to defeat Saudi Arabia and Argentina draw, then the two sides would have to be separated by goal difference, meaning Mexico would have to win by four clear goals to qualify if La Albiceleste were to draw.

A simpler line to finish things off for Argentina - if the two-time winners lose to Poland they will be knocked out of the tournament, a result that would guarantee the Poles top spot.



SAUDI ARABIA

Saudi Arabia's Saleh Al-Shehri celebrates scoring their first goal with Feras Al Brikan on November 22, 2022© Reuters

Saudi Arabia's historic win against Argentina has given them a chance of reaching the last 16 despite a 2-0 loss to Poland in their last fixture, with Herve Renard's side sitting third on three points, below their opening-game victims due to goal difference.

A win for Saudi Arabia would see them through to the knockout stages, with three points enough to finish first in the group if Argentina and Poland were to draw their match, whereas a win coupled with an Argentinian win could also secure top spot should Saudi Arabia's goal difference be superior by the end of the night.

A draw would be enough for Saudi Arabia if Poland manage to beat Argentina, but if the clash between Messi and Lewandowski also ends in a draw then Renard's men would be out of the competition.

A Saudi draw combined with an Argentina win would see the Middle East side finish level on points with Poland, meaning they would have to be separated by goal difference in which Poland currently have a three-goal advantage.

Defeat against Mexico would see Saudi Arabia knocked out of the tournament regardless of the result in the game between Poland and Argentina.



MEXICO

Mexico's Guillermo Ochoa celebrates after saving a penalty shot from Poland's Robert Lewandowski pictured on November 22, 2022© Reuters

Mexico are in the worst position to qualify for the last 16 and are the only team to have their fate in the hands of others, having collected just one point from two matches so far.

El Tri must beat Saudi Arabia to have any chance of progressing to the knockout stages, with a Poland win alongside a Mexico victory enough to secure second place for Gerardo Martino's side.

If Mexico win whilst Argentina and Poland draw, goal difference would be used to separate El Tri and Argentina, with Messi's side currently having a three-goal advantage in that metric.

Should Argentina beat Poland and Mexico win, goal difference would be the deciding factor again to see who finishes second out of Mexico and Poland.

A share of the spoils or a defeat versus Renard's Saudi Arabia side would see Mexico finish bottom of the group and head home after the full-time whistle at the Lusail Iconic Stadium.


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