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Lorient logo
Ligue 1 | Gameweek 31
Apr 4, 2021 at 2pm UK
Stade du Moustoir
Brest logo

Lorient
1 - 0
Brest

Abergel (45')
Abergel (20'), Monconduit (78'), Hamel (88')
FT(HT: 1-0)

Mounie (52'), Brassier (85')
Belkebla (90+3')

Preview: Lorient vs. Brest - prediction, team news, lineups

Sports Mole previews Sunday's Ligue 1 clash between Lorient and Brest, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

With both sides still embroiled in the battle to avoid demotion, 17th-placed Lorient welcome Brest to Stade du Moustoir on Sunday afternoon.

The imperiled pair drew their final matches before the international break and now go head-to-head in a crucial clash at the wrong end of Ligue 1.


Match preview

Lorient manager Christophe Pelissier pictured in January 2021© Reuters

Last year's Ligue 2 champions Lorient remain in the mix to achieve their primary objective for the 2020-21 season, as they sit precariously outside the top-flight drop zone on goal difference, with eight games to play.

A tally of 17 points from their last 11 matches - including an already infamous win over PSG in late January - has offered Christophe Pelissier's squad a realistic shot at survival.

Having spent several seasons out of the big time before last summer's promotion, the relegation battlers still face a tricky run-in, though hope to continue their increasingly solid form after a fortnight's hiatus.

Lorient are certainly proving tougher to beat of late, remaining undefeated in their four most recent outings. Though top scorer Terem Moffi has only eight goals so far, and they collectively average just over a goal per game, Les Merlus have found a way to grind out results - with six of their seven wins this term coming on home soil.

Despite managing to find the net twice in the reverse fixture against local rivals Brest though, Pelissier's men were beaten 3-2 at Stade Francis-Le Ble last autumn, so will aim for a measure of revenge on Sunday.

Brest manager Olivier Dall'Oglio pictured in February 2021© Reuters

Brest emerged from a cruel run of fixtures - facing Lille, Lyon, Monaco, Marseille and PSG in five of their previous six matches in league and cup - to earn a goalless draw with mid-table Angers last time out.

Now faced with back-to-back games against lowly Lorient and Nimes - both below them in the standings - the Breton side could pull themselves within touching distance of safety coming into the final stretch.

Les Pirates have plundered two wins and three draws from their last eight league outings, which sees them closer to the top half than the bottom three, whom they are currently six points clear of.

Having come within minutes of earning an impressive draw at Marseille last month - and previously downed Dijon thanks to a first-half goal blitz - head coach Olivier Dall'Oglio will surely expect his team to take maximum points this weekend; improving their recent record of just five points from a possible fifteen.

Lorient Ligue 1 form:
  • L
  • L
  • W
  • D
  • D
  • D

Lorient form (all competitions):
  • L
  • W
  • D
  • L
  • D
  • D


Brest Ligue 1 form:
  • D
  • W
  • L
  • W
  • L
  • D

Brest form (all competitions):
  • L
  • L
  • W
  • L
  • L
  • D



Team News

Steve Mounie pictured for Benin on June 29, 2019© Reuters

Brest's Benin international striker Steve Mounie returns from an extraordinary spell on international duty, during which he accused opponents Sierra Leone's testing authorities of fabricating positive COVID-19 cases among the Benin squad ahead of a crucial Africa Cup of Nations qualifier; subsequently postponed.

Though the former Huddersfield Town man, who has the most shots at goal for Brest this season, should be fit to lead the line alongside Irvin Cardona, the visitors could be without several players for this Breton derby, including defensive regulars Christophe Herelle and Ronael Pierre-Gabriel.

Hosts Lorient potentially have up to six squad members out through injury, including defenders Tiago Ilori and Jeremy Morel, while goalkeeper Paul Nardi continues his three-match suspension.

Mathieu Dreyer will continue in goal for Christophe Pellisier's side, behind a three-man defence featuring Chelsea loanee Trevoh Chalobah.

Lorient possible starting lineup:
Dreyer; Gravillon, Laporte, Chalobah; Mendes, Le Fee, Abergel, Grbic; Lauriente, Moffi, Wissa

Brest possible starting lineup:
Larsonneur; Faussurier, Chardonnet, Brassier, Perraud; Douaron, Lucas, Belkebla, Charbonnier; Mounie, Cardona


SM words green background

We say: Lorient 1-1 Brest

Lorient's battle against the drop could be set to go down to the wire, with a fourth successive draw a distinct possibility on Saturday.

A point apiece would not represent failure for either side, as Brest could continue their declining form of recent weeks against their lower-ranked local counterparts.



Top tip

Our expert tipster partners at Sporita.com are predicting a double chance bet on a home win or an away win in this match. Click here to find out what else they are predicting for this game and for more of their tried-and-tested football tips.Home/Away:data



ID:441589:1false2false3false:QQ:: from db desktop :LenBod:collect9888:
Written by
Jonathan O'Shea

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lorient win with a probability of 42.55%. A win for Brest had a probability of 29.32% and a draw had a probability of 28.1%.

The most likely scoreline for a Lorient win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.97%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.37%) and 2-0 (8.29%). The likeliest Brest win was 0-1 (10.25%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.09%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 13% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Lorient in this match.


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Game History

How you voted: Lorient vs Brest

Lorient
60.7%
Draw
28.6%
Brest
10.7%
28
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Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Lorient16103330151533
2Paris FCParis FC1694324131131
3DunkerqueDunkerque1610152621531
4Metz1685324131129
5Annecy167632318527
6Laval167452517825
7GuingampGuingamp168172622425
8AmiensAmiens167272021-123
9Bastia1641021614222
10PauPau166461819-122
11Rodez AFRodez AF165562926320
12Grenoble165381820-218
13Troyes165381519-418
14Red Star165381628-1218
15Clermont164571419-517
16Caen164391824-615
17Ajaccio164391017-715
18Martigues162311834-269


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