Barring their surprise defeat at the hands of Reims a few weeks back, Lille are almost always the favourites when they step out onto familiar territory, but injuries and suspensions will threaten their chances of a swift return to winning ways.
Brest's defensive nous is well-documented too, but Les Pirates have disciplinary concerns of their own to work around and have experienced little joy on Lille's turf down the years, so we still expect Fonseca's crop to come up trumps, albeit by a narrow margin.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lille win with a probability of 58.97%. A draw had a probability of 21.7% and a win for Brest had a probability of 19.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Lille win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.05%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.95%) and 2-0 (9.78%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.23%), while for a Brest win it was 0-1 (5.26%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 10.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Lille in this match.
-0.42) 
0.04) 
