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League One
Burton Albion
League One | Gameweek 2
Aug 12, 2023 at 3pm UK
Pirelli Stadium
Derby logo

Burton Albion
0 - 3
Derby


Seddon (2'), Maamria (3')
FT(HT: 0-1)
Collins (6'), Hourihane (78'), Washington (84')
Mendez-Laing (45+2'), Hourihane (66'), Cashin (90+6')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's League One clash between Burton Albion and Derby County, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Burton Albion

All competitions
League One
Last Game: Burton Albion 0-2 Leicester
Wednesday, August 9 at 8pm in EFL Cup

Derby County

All competitions
League One
Last Game: Derby 0-2 Blackpool
Tuesday, August 8 at 7.45pm in EFL Cup

We said: Burton Albion 0-1 Derby County

 As neither crop of players are brimming with confidence right now, do not expect a classic at the Pirelli Stadium, where further injuries to Burton's already-depleted squad may prove crucial. In contrast, Derby are blessed with a few more options for change in the forward areas, and despite Burton's respectable stretch of home form, Warne's side can shut up shop after drawing first blood to belatedly get off the mark. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Derby County win with a probability of 57.55%. A draw had a probability of 23.4% and a win for Burton Albion had a probability of 19.03%.

The most likely scoreline for a Derby County win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.42%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (10.86%) and 1-2 (9.73%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.12%), while for a Burton Albion win it was 1-0 (6.36%). The actual scoreline of 0-3 was predicted with a 6.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Derby County would win this match.

Result
Burton AlbionDrawDerby County
19.03% (-0.07 -0.07) 23.42% (0.011000000000003 0.01) 57.55% (0.059000000000005 0.06)
Both teams to score 48.87% (-0.145 -0.14)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
49.28% (-0.137 -0.14)50.72% (0.136 0.14)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
27.38% (-0.119 -0.12)72.62% (0.11799999999999 0.12)
Burton Albion Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
59.16% (-0.155 -0.16)40.84% (0.155 0.16)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
22.59% (-0.139 -0.14)77.41% (0.13900000000001 0.14)
Derby County Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
82.61% (-0.028000000000006 -0.03)17.39% (0.027000000000001 0.03)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
52.19% (-0.051000000000002 -0.05)47.81% (0.048999999999999 0.05)
Score Analysis
    Burton Albion 19.03%
    Derby County 57.54%
    Draw 23.42%
Burton AlbionDrawDerby County
1-0 @ 6.36% (0.0069999999999997 0.01)
2-1 @ 4.98% (-0.02 -0.02)
2-0 @ 2.85% (-0.008 -0.01)
3-1 @ 1.49% (-0.012 -0.01)
3-2 @ 1.3% (-0.012 -0.01)
Other @ 2.06%
Total : 19.03%
1-1 @ 11.12%
0-0 @ 7.1% (0.038 0.04)
2-2 @ 4.36% (-0.021999999999999 -0.02)
Other @ 0.84%
Total : 23.42%
0-1 @ 12.42% (0.06 0.06)
0-2 @ 10.86% (0.039999999999999 0.04)
1-2 @ 9.73% (-0.0060000000000002 -0.01)
0-3 @ 6.34% (0.016 0.02)
1-3 @ 5.67% (-0.0089999999999995 -0.01)
0-4 @ 2.77% (0.0049999999999999 0)
2-3 @ 2.54% (-0.015 -0.02)
1-4 @ 2.48% (-0.0059999999999998 -0.01)
2-4 @ 1.11% (-0.008 -0.01)
0-5 @ 0.97% (0.001 0)
Other @ 2.64%
Total : 57.54%

Head to Head
Apr 22, 2023 3pm
Gameweek 44
Derby
1-0
Burton Albion
McGoldrick (63' pen.)
Dec 10, 2022 2pm
Gameweek 21
Burton Albion
1-1
Derby
Adeboyejo (79')
Collins (23')
> Preview
Jul 20, 2019 3pm
Pre-season Friendlies
Burton Albion
2-5
Derby
Brayford (22'), Fraser (51')
Waghorn (16', 28', 37'), Bennett (47'), Bird (93')
Apr 14, 2018 3pm
Burton Albion
3-1
Derby
Boyce (24'), Murphy (44'), Akins (68')
Buxton (39'), Brayford (63'), Akpan (77')
Nugent (29')
Huddlestone (49')
Dec 2, 2017 3pm
Derby
1-0
Burton Albion
Russell (81')

Naylor (14'), Flanagan (65')
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
> View full version> Yesterday's results
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Wycombe WanderersWycombe1392231161529
2Birmingham CityBirmingham1292123111229
3Wrexham1374221101125
4Mansfield TownMansfield127322014624
5Lincoln CityLincoln137332016424
6Bolton WanderersBolton137242219323
7Huddersfield TownHuddersfield137151912722
8Barnsley136432118322
9Reading137152120122
10Stockport CountyStockport145632017321
11Exeter CityExeter126151310319
12Charlton AthleticCharlton135441514119
13Peterborough UnitedPeterborough145362526-118
14Rotherham UnitedRotherham144551416-217
15Stevenage145271015-517
16Blackpool134452125-416
17Bristol Rovers135171520-516
18Northampton TownNorthampton134361720-315
19Wigan AthleticWigan133551211114
20Leyton Orient133281118-711
21Crawley TownCrawley143291225-1311
22Cambridge UnitedCambridge123181117-610
23Shrewsbury TownShrewsbury1422101325-128
24Burton Albion130581325-125
> League One Full Table


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