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University College Dublin
League of Ireland Premier | Gameweek 24
Jul 14, 2023 at 7.45pm UK
UCD Bowl
Drogheda United

UCD
1 - 3
Drogheda

FT(HT: 0-2)
Brennan (19'), Keeley (26'), Foley (72')
Heeney (70'), Davis (90+2')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Friday's League of Ireland Premier clash between University College Dublin and Drogheda United, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: UCD 0-4 Shelbourne
Friday, July 7 at 7.45pm in League of Ireland Premier
Last Game: Drogheda 0-0 Shamrock
Friday, July 7 at 7.45pm in League of Ireland Premier

We said: University College Dublin 0-3 Drogheda United

Although UCD are desperate to pick up points in a bid to avoid the drop, Drogheda will be regarded as firm favourites to claim maximum points on Friday and they should have few problems running away with a comfortable victory. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Drogheda United win with a probability of 54.09%. A draw had a probability of 24.7% and a win for University College Dublin had a probability of 21.19%.

The most likely scoreline for a Drogheda United win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.75%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (10.39%) and 1-2 (9.54%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.71%), while for a University College Dublin win it was 1-0 (7.19%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 5.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Drogheda United would win this match.

Result
University College DublinDrawDrogheda United
21.19% (0.074000000000002 0.07) 24.72% (0.02 0.02) 54.09% (-0.091999999999999 -0.09)
Both teams to score 48.29% (0.045000000000002 0.05)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
46.83% (0.0090000000000003 0.01)53.18% (-0.0080000000000027 -0.01)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
25.26% (0.0069999999999979 0.01)74.74% (-0.0060000000000002 -0.01)
University College Dublin Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
60.07% (0.080999999999996 0.08)39.93% (-0.082000000000001 -0.08)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
23.41% (0.076000000000001 0.08)76.59% (-0.075000000000003 -0.08)
Drogheda United Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
80.39% (-0.033999999999992 -0.03)19.61% (0.035 0.04)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
48.45% (-0.055 -0.05)51.56% (0.055999999999997 0.06)
Score Analysis
    University College Dublin 21.19%
    Drogheda United 54.08%
    Draw 24.72%
University College DublinDrawDrogheda United
1-0 @ 7.19% (0.013 0.01)
2-1 @ 5.38% (0.016 0.02)
2-0 @ 3.3% (0.013 0.01)
3-1 @ 1.65% (0.008 0.01)
3-2 @ 1.34% (0.0050000000000001 0.01)
3-0 @ 1.01% (0.0070000000000001 0.01)
Other @ 1.34%
Total : 21.19%
1-1 @ 11.71% (0.010000000000002 0.01)
0-0 @ 7.83% (-0.0019999999999998 -0)
2-2 @ 4.38% (0.0089999999999995 0.01)
Other @ 0.8%
Total : 24.72%
0-1 @ 12.75% (-0.02 -0.02)
0-2 @ 10.39% (-0.02 -0.02)
1-2 @ 9.54% (-0.0020000000000007 -0)
0-3 @ 5.64% (-0.019 -0.02)
1-3 @ 5.18% (-0.0060000000000002 -0.01)
2-3 @ 2.38% (0.0020000000000002 0)
0-4 @ 2.3% (-0.011 -0.01)
1-4 @ 2.11% (-0.0050000000000003 -0.01)
2-4 @ 0.97%
Other @ 2.82%
Total : 54.08%

How you voted: UCD vs Drogheda

University College Dublin
11.5%
Draw
11.5%
Drogheda United
76.9%
26
Head to Head
May 26, 2023 7.45pm
Gameweek 17
Drogheda
3-1
UCD
Draper (42', 45'), Grimes (67')
Keeley (71')
Wells (19')
Doyle (30'), Keaney (42')
Mar 10, 2023 7.45pm
Oct 21, 2022 7.45pm
Gameweek 34
UCD
2-1
Drogheda
Keaney (39'), Keane (67')
Nugent (3')
Aug 1, 2022 5pm
Gameweek 19
Drogheda
1-1
UCD
Foley (3')
Foley (22'), Quinn (70')
Lonergan (45+2')
Dunne (45'), Todd (53'), Duffy (73'), Lonergan (86')
Apr 15, 2022 7.45pm
Gameweek 10
UCD
0-2
Drogheda
Lyons (61' pen.), Weir (89')
Rooney (54'), Nugent (84')
rhs 2.0
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