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FA Cup
Stoke logo
FA Cup | Fifth Round
Feb 28, 2023 at 7.15pm UK
Bet365 Stadium
Brighton logo

Stoke
0 - 1
Brighton


Laurent (21'), Baker (50')
FT(HT: 0-1)
Ferguson (30')
Undav (90')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Tuesday's FA Cup clash between Stoke City and Brighton & Hove Albion, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Stoke City

All competitions
FA Cup
Last Game: Stoke 0-1 Millwall
Saturday, February 25 at 3pm in Championship

Brighton & Hove Albion

All competitions
FA Cup
Last Game: Brighton 0-1 Fulham
Saturday, February 18 at 3pm in Premier League

We said: Stoke City 1-3 Brighton & Hove Albion

 Brighton have become a very entertaining outfit under De Zerbi's stewardship, and we expect the Seagulls to have too much attacking fluency for their Championship opponents on Tuesday. Indeed, the visitors had the weekend off due to their match against Newcastle United being rescheduled, so they should be far fresher than Stoke on the day. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Brighton & Hove Albion win with a probability of 48.97%. A win for Stoke City had a probability of 27.1% and a draw had a probability of 23.9%.

The most likely scoreline for a Brighton & Hove Albion win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.53%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (9.32%) and 0-2 (7.92%). The likeliest Stoke City win was 2-1 (6.76%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.22%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 9.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Brighton & Hove Albion would win this match.

Result
Stoke CityDrawBrighton & Hove Albion
27.1% (-0.045999999999999 -0.05) 23.93% (0.0019999999999989 0) 48.97% (0.046999999999997 0.05)
Both teams to score 57.21% (-0.049999999999997 -0.05)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
55.48% (-0.045999999999999 -0.05)44.52% (0.049999999999997 0.05)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
33.11% (-0.045000000000002 -0.05)66.89% (0.049999999999997 0.05)
Stoke City Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
70.01% (-0.060000000000002 -0.06)29.99% (0.064 0.06)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
33.89% (-0.074000000000005 -0.07)66.11% (0.076999999999998 0.08)
Brighton & Hove Albion Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
81.72% (0.0030000000000001 0)18.28% (0.0019999999999989 0)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
50.65%49.35% (0.0039999999999978 0)
Score Analysis
    Stoke City 27.1%
    Brighton & Hove Albion 48.97%
    Draw 23.93%
Stoke CityDrawBrighton & Hove Albion
2-1 @ 6.76% (-0.0089999999999995 -0.01)
1-0 @ 6.6% (0.0030000000000001 0)
2-0 @ 3.98% (-0.0049999999999999 -0)
3-1 @ 2.71% (-0.008 -0.01)
3-2 @ 2.3% (-0.0070000000000001 -0.01)
3-0 @ 1.6% (-0.0049999999999999 -0)
Other @ 3.15%
Total : 27.1%
1-1 @ 11.22% (0.0099999999999998 0.01)
2-2 @ 5.74% (-0.008 -0.01)
0-0 @ 5.48% (0.012 0.01)
3-3 @ 1.31% (-0.004 -0)
Other @ 0.18%
Total : 23.93%
1-2 @ 9.53% (0.0030000000000001 0)
0-1 @ 9.32% (0.02 0.02)
0-2 @ 7.92% (0.016999999999999 0.02)
1-3 @ 5.4% (0.0020000000000007 0)
0-3 @ 4.48% (0.0090000000000003 0.01)
2-3 @ 3.25% (-0.0049999999999999 -0)
1-4 @ 2.29% (0.00099999999999989 0)
0-4 @ 1.91% (0.004 0)
2-4 @ 1.38% (-0.002 -0)
Other @ 3.49%
Total : 48.97%

How you voted: Stoke vs Brighton

Stoke City
20.5%
Draw
9.8%
Brighton & Hove Albion
69.7%
132
Head to Head
Feb 10, 2018 3pm
Stoke
1-1
Brighton
Shaqiri (68')
Izquierdo (32')
> Match Report
Nov 20, 2017 8pm
Brighton
2-2
Stoke
Gross (44'), Izquierdo (60')
Murray (42')
Maxim Choupo-Moting (28'), Zouma (45')
> Match Report
Apr 30, 2006 3pm
Brighton
1-5
Stoke
Loft (84')
Henderson (7')
Sidibe (40'), Rooney (6', 22', 63')
Nov 5, 2005 3pm
Stoke
3-0
Brighton
Russell (68')
Russell (31'), Brammer (82'), Duberry (87')

McShane (39')
Mar 5, 2005 3pm
Stoke
2-0
Brighton
Noel-Williams (39' pen., 44' pen.)
Clarke (52')

Nicolas (69')
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
> View full version> Yesterday's results
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Liverpool16123137162139
2Chelsea17105237191835
3Arsenal1796234161833
4Nottingham ForestNott'm Forest179442319431
5Bournemouth178452721628
6Aston Villa178452626028
7Manchester CityMan City178362925427
8Newcastle UnitedNewcastle177552721626
9Fulham176742422225
10Brighton & Hove AlbionBrighton176742726125
11Tottenham HotspurSpurs1772839251423
12Brentford177283232023
13Manchester UnitedMan Utd176472122-122
14West Ham UnitedWest Ham175572230-820
15Everton163761421-716
16Crystal Palace173771826-816
17Leicester CityLeicester173592137-1614
18Wolverhampton WanderersWolves1733112740-1312
19Ipswich TownIpswich172691632-1612
20Southampton1713131136-256
> Premier League Full Table


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