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FA Cup
Hartlepool United
FA Cup | Third Round
Jan 8, 2023 at 2pm UK
The Northern Gas and Power Stadium
Stoke logo

Hartlepool
0 - 3
Stoke


Hamilton (47')
FT(HT: 0-2)
Murray (16' og.), Brown (43'), Menayese (48' og.)

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's FA Cup clash between Hartlepool United and Stoke City, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Hartlepool United

All competitions
FA Cup
Last Game: Hartlepool 3-3 Harrogate
Sunday, January 1 at 3pm in League Two

Stoke City

All competitions
Last Game: Stoke 0-1 Preston
Monday, January 2 at 3.15pm in Championship

We said: Hartlepool United 0-2 Stoke City

 Hartlepool have nothing to lose as they head into this tough assignment against Championship opposition - something that will make a pleasant change from a League Two campaign clouded with relegation worries. The Potters are heavy favourites to progress into the fourth round, and with Gayle returning to the matchday squad, they without doubt have enough quality to get the better of their fourth-tier hosts on Sunday afternoon. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Stoke City win with a probability of 49.85%. A draw had a probability of 25.1% and a win for Hartlepool United had a probability of 25.02%.

The most likely scoreline for a Stoke City win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.45%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.45%) and 0-2 (9.06%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.95%), while for a Hartlepool United win it was 1-0 (7.56%). The actual scoreline of 0-3 was predicted with a 4.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Stoke City would win this match.

Result
Hartlepool UnitedDrawStoke City
25.02% (0.864 0.86) 25.13% (0.516 0.52) 49.85% (-1.382 -1.38)
Both teams to score 51.46% (-0.709 -0.71)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
48.79% (-1.363 -1.36)51.2% (1.361 1.36)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
26.96% (-1.204 -1.2)73.04% (1.203 1.2)
Hartlepool United Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
64.78% (0.0090000000000003 0.01)35.22% (-0.010999999999996 -0.01)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
28.02% (0.011999999999997 0.01)71.98% (-0.013000000000005 -0.01)
Stoke City Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
79.44% (-1.107 -1.11)20.56% (1.105 1.11)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
46.92% (-1.78 -1.78)53.07% (1.777 1.78)
Score Analysis
    Hartlepool United 25.02%
    Stoke City 49.84%
    Draw 25.13%
Hartlepool UnitedDrawStoke City
1-0 @ 7.56% (0.406 0.41)
2-1 @ 6.24% (0.131 0.13)
2-0 @ 3.94% (0.213 0.21)
3-1 @ 2.17% (0.046 0.05)
3-2 @ 1.72% (-0.022 -0.02)
3-0 @ 1.37% (0.074 0.07)
Other @ 2.03%
Total : 25.02%
1-1 @ 11.95% (0.25 0.25)
0-0 @ 7.24% (0.387 0.39)
2-2 @ 4.93% (-0.065 -0.07)
3-3 @ 0.91% (-0.044 -0.04)
Other @ 0.1%
Total : 25.13%
0-1 @ 11.45% (0.23 0.23)
1-2 @ 9.45% (-0.128 -0.13)
0-2 @ 9.06% (-0.126 -0.13)
1-3 @ 4.99% (-0.244 -0.24)
0-3 @ 4.78% (-0.235 -0.24)
2-3 @ 2.6% (-0.127 -0.13)
1-4 @ 1.97% (-0.169 -0.17)
0-4 @ 1.89% (-0.162 -0.16)
2-4 @ 1.03% (-0.088 -0.09)
Other @ 2.62%
Total : 49.84%

How you voted: Hartlepool vs Stoke

Hartlepool United
25.8%
Draw
9.7%
Stoke City
64.5%
31
rhs 2.0
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