Copa Sudamericana | Round of 16 | 1st Leg
Jul 16, 2021 at 1.30am UK
Estadio Gran Parque Central
Nacional1 - 2Penarol
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Nacional win with a probability of 48.35%. A win for Penarol had a probability of 26.34% and a draw had a probability of 25.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Nacional win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.16%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.37%) and 2-0 (8.68%). The likeliest Penarol win was 0-1 (7.74%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.04%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 6.5% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Nacional | Draw | Penarol |
| 48.35% | 25.32% | 26.34% |
| Both teams to score 52.07% |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 49.02% | 50.98% |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 27.15% | 72.84% |
| Nacional Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 78.9% | 21.1% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 46.07% | 53.93% |
| Penarol Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 66% | 34% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 29.32% | 70.68% |
| Score Analysis |
Nacional 48.34%
Penarol 26.34%
Draw 25.32%
| Nacional | Draw | Penarol |
| 1-0 @ 11.16% 2-1 @ 9.37% 2-0 @ 8.68% 3-1 @ 4.86% 3-0 @ 4.5% 3-2 @ 2.62% 4-1 @ 1.89% 4-0 @ 1.75% 4-2 @ 1.02% Other @ 2.49% Total : 48.34% | 1-1 @ 12.04% 0-0 @ 7.17% 2-2 @ 5.05% 3-3 @ 0.94% Other @ 0.11% Total : 25.32% | 0-1 @ 7.74% 1-2 @ 6.5% 0-2 @ 4.18% 1-3 @ 2.34% 2-3 @ 1.82% 0-3 @ 1.5% Other @ 2.27% Total : 26.34% |
How you voted: Nacional vs Penarol
Nacional
64.3%Draw
21.4%Penarol
14.3%42
Head to Head
Jul 4, 2021 8pm
Gameweek 9
Nacional
2-0
Penarol
Dec 13, 2020 8.30pm
Gameweek 7
Penarol
3-2
Nacional
Formiliano (28'), Terans (37'), Nahuelpan (88')
Herrera (38'), Kagelmacher (57'), Bravo (68'), Torres (82'), Urreta (90')
Herrera (38'), Kagelmacher (57'), Bravo (68'), Torres (82'), Urreta (90')
Aug 9, 2020 7pm
Dec 15, 2019 8pm
Championship Semi-Final
Nacional
1-0
Penarol
Busquets (4'), Rojas (31'), Rodriguez (42'), Estoyanoff (45'), Lores (47'), Formiliano (95')
Lores (85'), Dawson (89')
