Central Coast Mariners travel to Melbourne Victory on Sunday looking for the victory which will move them back into second place in the A-League standings.
Despite claiming two wins from their last four outings, the home side remain just one point ahead of bottom side Newcastle Jets.
Match preview
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Having witnessed his Mariners side win just one of seven matches in the A-League, Alen Stajcic would have had concerns ahead of the home fixture with Brisbane Roar.
Those worries proved to be justified as the Mariners succumbed to a 4-0 defeat, conceding twice in the final minutes after being reduced to 10 men in the second half.
Despite playing at a man disadvantage not being in their favour, the Mariners had already been well on course for another defeat which keeps them away from leaders Melbourne City.
While they now trail City by four points, losing against Victory would put the Mariners at risk of dropping down to fifth spot over the next week.
The Mariners have now kept just one clean sheet in 11 fixtures, their most recent shutout coming against Macarthur on March 8.
Victory have gone as many as 10 games without preventing their opponents from finding the back of the net.
However, there are signs that recently-appointed boss Steve Kean could turn things around with a 5-4 victory over Western Sydney Wanderers being followed by a narrow defeat at Sydney FC.
Victory were left to rue a slow start against the in-form side in the division, but they deserve credit for remaining in contention for a point until the full-time whistle.
Although Kean's main aim will be staying above bottom-side Newcastle Jets, Victory will move to within one point of 10th-placed Perth Glory if results go their way this weekend.
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Team News
Having made just one change during the Sydney defeat, there are signs that Kean's current preference is to keep with a settled side.
With that in mind, the former Blackburn Rovers boss could select the same Victory starting lineup for this game.
Callum McManaman is available again after serving a one-match suspension for five yellow cards.
The Mariners will be without Marco Urena after his dismissal during the defeat against Brisbane.
Stajcic could opt for a change in system, potentially bringing Daniel Bouman into midfield and using Matt Simon on his own in attack.
Melbourne Victory possible starting lineup:
Acton; Roux, Ansell, Ryan, Broxham; Barnett, Butterfield; Brooks, Kamsoba, Folami; Gestede
Central Coast Mariners possible starting lineup:
Birighitti; Nigro, Tongyik, Rowles, Clisby; Nisbet, Stensness, Bozanic, Bouman, Da Silva; Simon
We say: Melbourne Victory 1-2 Central Coast Mariners
Despite their mixed results under Kean, Victory are full of confidence ahead of this fixture. Nevertheless, the Mariners will get back on track at some point, and we feel that the visitors will battle their way to all three points at the weekend.
Top tip
Darren Plant
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Central Coast Mariners win with a probability of 43.91%. A win for Melbourne Victory had a probability of 31.63% and a draw had a probability of 24.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Central Coast Mariners win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.1%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.67%) and 0-2 (6.91%). The likeliest Melbourne Victory win was 2-1 (7.53%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.42%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with an 11.4% likelihood.
