Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Neman win with a probability of 41.35%. A win for Smolevichi had a probability of 29.88% and a draw had a probability of 28.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Neman win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.34%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.15%) and 2-1 (8.09%). The likeliest Smolevichi win was 0-1 (10.84%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.24%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with an 8.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Neman would win this match.