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Africa Cup Of Nations section header

Africa Cup of Nations
Uganda national football team
Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying | Group Stage
Nov 15, 2024 at 1pm UK
Stade de la Reunification
South Africa national football team

Uganda
0 - 2
South Africa


Lwanga (42')
FT(HT: 0-0)
Morena (49'), Maswanganyi (89')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Friday's Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying clash between Uganda and South Africa, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Uganda

All competitions
Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying
Last Game: South Sudan 1-2 Uganda
Tuesday, October 15 at 2pm in Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying

South Africa

All competitions
Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying
Last Game: Congo 1-1 South Africa
Tuesday, October 15 at 5pm in Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying

We said: Uganda 1-1 South Africa

 While South Africa have the better team on paper, they are missing several key players for this month's matches, particularly in the attacking areas, and we feel that Uganda will be able to get something from this match and secure their qualification in the process. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a South Africa win with a probability of 43.92%. A win for Uganda had a probability of 28.24% and a draw had a probability of 27.8%.

The most likely scoreline for a South Africa win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.05%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (8.58%) and 1-2 (8.54%). The likeliest Uganda win was 1-0 (9.88%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.98%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with an 8.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that South Africa would win this match.

Result
UgandaDrawSouth Africa
28.24% (0.082000000000001 0.08) 27.84% (0.039999999999999 0.04) 43.92% (-0.123 -0.12)
Both teams to score 46.1% (-0.062999999999995 -0.06)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
40.65% (-0.102 -0.1)59.35% (0.103 0.1)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
20.26% (-0.078999999999997 -0.08)79.74% (0.079999999999998 0.08)
Uganda Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
63.03% (0.009999999999998 0.01)36.97% (-0.009999999999998 -0.01)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
26.24% (0.012 0.01)73.76% (-0.01100000000001 -0.01)
South Africa Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
73.14% (-0.11099999999999 -0.11)26.86% (0.113 0.11)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
37.83% (-0.147 -0.15)62.17% (0.148 0.15)
Score Analysis
    Uganda 28.24%
    South Africa 43.91%
    Draw 27.83%
UgandaDrawSouth Africa
1-0 @ 9.88% (0.041 0.04)
2-1 @ 6.46% (0.008 0.01)
2-0 @ 4.92% (0.021000000000001 0.02)
3-1 @ 2.14% (0.0029999999999997 0)
3-0 @ 1.63% (0.008 0.01)
3-2 @ 1.41% (-0.002 -0)
Other @ 1.8%
Total : 28.24%
1-1 @ 12.98% (0.0099999999999998 0.01)
0-0 @ 9.93% (0.039 0.04)
2-2 @ 4.25% (-0.008 -0.01)
Other @ 0.67%
Total : 27.83%
0-1 @ 13.05% (0.010000000000002 0.01)
0-2 @ 8.58% (-0.020999999999999 -0.02)
1-2 @ 8.54% (-0.017999999999999 -0.02)
0-3 @ 3.76% (-0.021 -0.02)
1-3 @ 3.74% (-0.02 -0.02)
2-3 @ 1.86% (-0.0090000000000001 -0.01)
0-4 @ 1.24% (-0.011 -0.01)
1-4 @ 1.23% (-0.011 -0.01)
Other @ 1.92%
Total : 43.91%

How you voted: Uganda vs South Africa

Uganda
34.0%
Draw
36.0%
South Africa
30.0%
50
Head to Head
Sep 6, 2024 5pm
Group Stage
South Africa
2-2
Uganda
Foster (14'), Mbatha (90+5')
Ngezana (9'), Mudau (45+3'), Foster (88')
Omedi (51'), Mato (54')
Kayondo (59'), Ojera (90')
> Preview
Jun 10, 2021 5pm
Friendlies 1
South Africa
3-2
Uganda
Makgopa (62', 83'), Hlongwane (67')
Orit (17'), Abdu (89')
Lwanga (42'), Willa (86')
> Preview
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