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Africa Cup Of Nations section header

Africa Cup of Nations
Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying | Group Stage
Sep 10, 2024 at 2pm UK
Mbombela Stadium
Mali national football team

Eswatini
0 - 1
Mali


Tfomo (14'), Masangane (45+3'), (49')
FT(HT: 0-1)
Bissouma (7')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Tuesday's Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying clash between Eswatini and Mali, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Eswatini

Last Game: Guinea-Bissau 1-0 Eswatini
Thursday, September 5 at 5pm in Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying

Mali

All competitions
Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying
Last Game: Mali 1-1 Mozambique
Friday, September 6 at 8pm in Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying

We said: Eswatini 0-1 Mali

 With Eswatini's recent record in competitive fixtures, it is hard to envision anything other than an away win for the highest-ranked team in Group I. Given that Mali also drew their opening game against Mozambique, they will know that anything other than a win here would be a huge disappointment, even with the number of players Mali have unavailable on Sunday. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Mali win with a probability of 51.46%. A draw had a probability of 28% and a win for Eswatini had a probability of 20.58%.

The most likely scoreline for a Mali win was 0-1 with a probability of 16.46%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (11.23%) and 1-2 (8.43%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.35%), while for a Eswatini win it was 1-0 (9.05%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 16.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted a 0-1 win for Mali in this match.

Result
EswatiniDrawMali
20.58% (0.097999999999999 0.1) 27.96% (0.0019999999999989 0) 51.46% (-0.101 -0.1)
Both teams to score 39.3% (0.104 0.1)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
35.45% (0.072000000000003 0.07)64.55% (-0.072000000000003 -0.07)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
16.42% (0.050000000000001 0.05)83.57% (-0.051000000000002 -0.05)
Eswatini Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
52.78% (0.151 0.15)47.22% (-0.153 -0.15)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
17.35% (0.113 0.11)82.65% (-0.114 -0.11)
Mali Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
74.46% (-0.015000000000001 -0.02)25.54% (0.013999999999999 0.01)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
39.59% (-0.019999999999996 -0.02)60.4% (0.021000000000001 0.02)
Score Analysis
    Eswatini 20.58%
    Mali 51.46%
    Draw 27.96%
EswatiniDrawMali
1-0 @ 9.05% (0.015000000000001 0.02)
2-1 @ 4.64% (0.026 0.03)
2-0 @ 3.4% (0.02 0.02)
3-1 @ 1.16% (0.011 0.01)
Other @ 2.34%
Total : 20.58%
1-1 @ 12.35% (0.02 0.02)
0-0 @ 12.06% (-0.029999999999999 -0.03)
2-2 @ 3.16% (0.016 0.02)
Other @ 0.38%
Total : 27.96%
0-1 @ 16.46% (-0.050000000000001 -0.05)
0-2 @ 11.23% (-0.039999999999999 -0.04)
1-2 @ 8.43% (0.0060000000000002 0.01)
0-3 @ 5.11% (-0.02 -0.02)
1-3 @ 3.84% (0.0019999999999998 0)
0-4 @ 1.74% (-0.0069999999999999 -0.01)
2-3 @ 1.44% (0.0070000000000001 0.01)
1-4 @ 1.31%
Other @ 1.9%
Total : 51.46%

How you voted: Eswatini vs Mali

Eswatini
29.6%
Draw
7.4%
Mali
63.0%
27
rhs 2.0
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Tables header RHS
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1Liverpool18143145172845
2Arsenal19116238172139
3Nottingham ForestNott'm Forest1911442619737
4Chelsea19105438231535
5Newcastle UnitedNewcastle1995532211132
6Manchester CityMan City199463226631
7Bournemouth198652923630
8Fulham197842825329
9Aston Villa198562831-329
10Brighton & Hove AlbionBrighton196942928127
11Tottenham HotspurSpurs1973941281324
12Brentford197393335-224
13West Ham UnitedWest Ham196582335-1223
14Manchester UnitedMan Utd196492126-522
15Crystal Palace194872027-720
16Everton183871524-917
17Wolverhampton WanderersWolves1944113142-1116
18Ipswich TownIpswich1936101833-1515
19Leicester CityLeicester1935112242-2014
20Southampton1913151239-276
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