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Africa Cup Of Nations section header

Africa Cup of Nations
Malawi national football team
Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying | Group Stage
Sep 5, 2024 at 2pm UK
Bingu National Stadium
Burundi national football team

Malawi
2 - 3
Burundi

Kawonga (31'), Nkhoma (75')
Saizi (83')
FT(HT: 1-2)
Idana (22' og.), Claude Girumugisha (33'), Elie Eldhino (87')
Madjaliwa Mussa (21'), Nsabiyumva (90+4'), Ndayishimiye (90+4')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Thursday's Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying clash between Malawi and Burundi, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Malawi

All competitions
Last Game: Eq Guinea 1-0 Malawi
Monday, June 10 at 2pm in World Cup Qualifying - Africa

Burundi

All competitions
Last Game: Seychelles 1-3 Burundi
Tuesday, June 11 at 8pm in World Cup Qualifying - Africa

We said: Malawi 1-0 Burundi

 Both Malawi and Burundi are short of attacking firepower at their disposal, and we expect a low scoring affair in this one. That said, we are also backing the home side to just about drag themselves over the line and claim a narrow win at the end of the 90 minutes. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Malawi win with a probability of 41.13%. A win for Burundi had a probability of 32.32% and a draw had a probability of 26.6%.

The most likely scoreline for a Malawi win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.68%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.64%) and 2-0 (7.31%). The likeliest Burundi win was 0-1 (9.23%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.62%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 2% likelihood.

Result
MalawiDrawBurundi
41.13% (-0.317 -0.32) 26.56% (-0.0060000000000002 -0.01) 32.32% (0.325 0.32)
Both teams to score 51.68% (0.13200000000001 0.13)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
46.89% (0.12 0.12)53.11% (-0.117 -0.12)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
25.31% (0.102 0.1)74.69% (-0.099000000000004 -0.1)
Malawi Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
74.55% (-0.10899999999999 -0.11)25.46% (0.112 0.11)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
39.72% (-0.15 -0.15)60.28% (0.154 0.15)
Burundi Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
69.32% (0.28100000000001 0.28)30.68% (-0.279 -0.28)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
33.07% (0.33 0.33)66.93% (-0.327 -0.33)
Score Analysis
    Malawi 41.12%
    Burundi 32.32%
    Draw 26.55%
MalawiDrawBurundi
1-0 @ 10.68% (-0.09 -0.09)
2-1 @ 8.64% (-0.029 -0.03)
2-0 @ 7.31% (-0.081 -0.08)
3-1 @ 3.94% (-0.026 -0.03)
3-0 @ 3.33% (-0.048 -0.05)
3-2 @ 2.33% (0.0019999999999998 0)
4-1 @ 1.35% (-0.013 -0.01)
4-0 @ 1.14% (-0.02 -0.02)
Other @ 2.41%
Total : 41.12%
1-1 @ 12.62%
0-0 @ 7.81% (-0.036 -0.04)
2-2 @ 5.1% (0.021999999999999 0.02)
3-3 @ 0.92% (0.008 0.01)
Other @ 0.1%
Total : 26.55%
0-1 @ 9.23% (0.028 0.03)
1-2 @ 7.46% (0.056 0.06)
0-2 @ 5.45% (0.058 0.06)
1-3 @ 2.94% (0.044 0.04)
0-3 @ 2.15% (0.039 0.04)
2-3 @ 2.01% (0.024 0.02)
Other @ 3.09%
Total : 32.32%

How you voted: Malawi vs Burundi

Malawi
65.6%
Draw
21.9%
Burundi
12.5%
32
rhs 2.0
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Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Liverpool18143145172845
2Arsenal19116238172139
3Nottingham ForestNott'm Forest1911442619737
4Chelsea19105438231535
5Newcastle UnitedNewcastle1995532211132
6Manchester CityMan City199463226631
7Bournemouth198652923630
8Fulham197842825329
9Aston Villa198562831-329
10Brighton & Hove AlbionBrighton196942928127
11Tottenham HotspurSpurs1973941281324
12Brentford197393335-224
13West Ham UnitedWest Ham196582335-1223
14Manchester UnitedMan Utd196492126-522
15Crystal Palace194872027-720
16Everton183871524-917
17Wolverhampton WanderersWolves1944113142-1116
18Ipswich TownIpswich1936101833-1515
19Leicester CityLeicester1935112242-2014
20Southampton1913151239-276
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