World Cup

World Cup Qualifying - Asia | Third Round

Mar 24, 2022 at 3pm UK

Guangxi Sports Center

China
1 - 1
Saudi Arabia

Zhu (82' pen.)
Junmin (24'), Zhu (39'), Dabao (90+1')

FT(HT: 0-1)

Al-Shehri (45+1')
Al Amri (60')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Thursday's World Cup Qualifying - Asia clash between China and Saudi Arabia, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

China

Last Game: Oman 2-0 China
Tuesday, March 29 at 5pm in World Cup Qualifying - Asia

Saudi Arabia

Last Six:

Last Game: Saudi Arabia 0-1 Colombia
Sunday, June 5 at 6pm in International Friendlies

Next Game: Saudi Arabia vs. Venezuela
Thursday, June 9 at 6pm in International Friendlies

Current Group A Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Uruguay	2	4	6
2	Saudi Arabia	2	0	3
3	Russia	2	-1	3
4	Egypt	2	-3	0

We said: China 0-2 Saudi Arabia

We expect Saudi Arabia to get the win they need in this game and to secure it fairly comfortably. Li Xiaopeng's tenure at the China helm has not got off to a good start and he is missing star man Wu Lei so his side could struggle. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a China win with a probability of 37.41%. A win for Saudi Arabia had a probability of 37.32% and a draw had a probability of 25.3%.

The most likely scoreline for a China win was 1-0 with a probability of 8.51%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.35%) and 2-0 (5.96%). The likeliest Saudi Arabia win was 0-1 (8.5%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.91%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with an 11.9% likelihood.

Result
China	Draw	Saudi Arabia
37.41%	25.27%	37.32%

Both teams to score 56.8%

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

53.11%

46.89%

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

30.86%

69.14%

China Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

75.39%

24.61%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

40.89%

59.11%

Saudi Arabia Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

75.35%

24.65%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

40.82%

59.17%

Score Analysis

China 37.41%

Saudi Arabia 37.32%

Draw 25.27%

China	Draw	Saudi Arabia
1-0 @ 8.51% 2-1 @ 8.35% 2-0 @ 5.96% 3-1 @ 3.9% 3-0 @ 2.79% 3-2 @ 2.73% 4-1 @ 1.37% 4-0 @ 0.98% 4-2 @ 0.96% Other @ 1.86% Total : 37.41%	1-1 @ 11.91% 0-0 @ 6.07% 2-2 @ 5.85% 3-3 @ 1.28% Other @ 0.17% Total : 25.27%	0-1 @ 8.5% 1-2 @ 8.34% 0-2 @ 5.95% 1-3 @ 3.89% 0-3 @ 2.78% 2-3 @ 2.73% 1-4 @ 1.36% 0-4 @ 0.97% 2-4 @ 0.96% Other @ 1.85% Total : 37.32%