World Cup

World Cup Qualifying - South America | Group Stage

Jan 28, 2022 at 12.15am UK

Chile
1 - 2
Argentina

Brereton Diaz (21')
Vegas (26'), Maripan (69'), Pulgar (76'), Sanchez (79'), Montecinos (89')

FT(HT: 1-2)

di Maria (10'), Martinez (34')
Otamendi (39'), De Paul (54'), Paredes (72'), Tagliafico (90+5')

The Match

The pressure will be on Chile to secure all three points on Friday, while Argentina are merely looking to extend their unbeaten record, having already qualified. A closely-fought contest is set to be played out in Calama, and despite the absence of Messi, the visitors have enough quality in their side to secure a slender win. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Argentina win with a probability of 48.79%. A win for Chile had a probability of 26.88% and a draw had a probability of 24.3%.

The most likely scoreline for an Argentina win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.86%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.51%) and 0-2 (8.16%). The likeliest Chile win was 1-0 (6.94%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.49%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 9.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Argentina would win this match.

Result
Chile	Draw	Argentina
26.88%	24.33%	48.79%

Both teams to score 55.68%

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

53.55%

46.45%

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

31.27%

68.73%

Chile Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

68.84%

31.16%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

32.5%

67.5%

Argentina Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

80.89%

19.11%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

49.27%

50.73%

Score Analysis

Chile 26.88%

Argentina 48.79%

Draw 24.33%

Chile	Draw	Argentina
1-0 @ 6.94% 2-1 @ 6.7% 2-0 @ 4.05% 3-1 @ 2.6% 3-2 @ 2.15% 3-0 @ 1.57% Other @ 2.86% Total : 26.88%	1-1 @ 11.49% 0-0 @ 5.96% 2-2 @ 5.54% 3-3 @ 1.19% Other @ 0.16% Total : 24.33%	0-1 @ 9.86% 1-2 @ 9.51% 0-2 @ 8.16% 1-3 @ 5.25% 0-3 @ 4.5% 2-3 @ 3.06% 1-4 @ 2.17% 0-4 @ 1.86% 2-4 @ 1.27% Other @ 3.16% Total : 48.79%