Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Progreso win with a probability of 45.1%. A win for Fenix had a probability of 28.15% and a draw had a probability of 26.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Progreso win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.04%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.9%) and 0-2 (8.47%). The likeliest Fenix win was 1-0 (9.01%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.66%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 6.7% likelihood.