Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Olimpik Donetsk win with a probability of 37.18%. A win for Mariupol had a probability of 36.71% and a draw had a probability of 26.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Olimpik Donetsk win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.4%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.25%) and 0-2 (6.25%). The likeliest Mariupol win was 1-0 (9.33%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.4%). The actual scoreline of 1-4 was predicted with a 1.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Olimpik Donetsk would win this match.